環境／情境對臺灣民眾抗敵意志之影響：2021～2023年的實證分析

Contextual and Situational Influences on Taiwanese Fighting Will: An Empirical Analysis From 2021 to 2023

李冠成(Kuan-chen Lee)

《政治學報》 Issue 77 (2024/06) Pp. 45-77

https://doi.org/10.6229/CPSR.202406_(77).0002

Abstracts

本研究透過分析從2021年至2023年的民調資料，檢視不同環境、情境對於民眾抗敵意志的影響。研究結果顯示，特定時空脈絡下所發生的重大事件－如中共對臺的大規模軍演，具有削弱民眾抗敵意志的短期效果。此外，公眾抗敵決心的強弱也取決於個人主觀認知的情境－包括對中共的威脅評估、美國的安全承諾及對國軍的信心。多變量統計模型分析進一步發現，公眾對於國軍防衛能力的信心更是影響抗敵意志的關鍵。換言之，國軍有形的軍事戰力可以感染、激發無形的精神戰力。無論平時或戰時，有形和無形戰力彼此連動、缺一不可。本文認為現階段提升國軍的戰力與民眾對國軍的信心是凝聚國人抗敵決心的不二法門。

Keywords

民意調查 ； 全民防衛 ； 抗敵意志 ； 國軍信心 ； 環境與情境

Parallel abstracts

This study examines the determinants of Taiwanese fighting will by analyzing polling data from 2021 to 2023. We explore how contextual and situational factors influence public resolve. Our findings reveal that major events, such as People's Liberation Army (PLA) maneuvers, temporarily weaken the people's resolve to resist. Individual perceptions, including assessments of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threat, U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security, and confidence in Taiwan's military, are crucial. Multivariate analyses emphasize the importance of public confidence in Taiwan's military, strongly correlating with the determination to defend. This suggests tangible military strength fosters intangible fortitude, intertwining material and psychological dimensions. To solidify and unify public resolve against external threats, it is essential to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities and enhance public confidence in the military.

Parallel keywords

Public Opinion ； All-Out Defense ； Fighting Will ； Confidence in National Military ； Contextual and Situational Influences