「台灣選舉與民主化調查」之政黨認同測量的探討

Measuring Party Identification in Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study

蕭怡靖(Yi-Ching Shiao)

《選舉研究》 16卷1期 (2009/05) Pp. 67-93

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2009.16.01.67-93

摘要

本文以「台灣選舉與民主化調查」爲例，檢證其政黨認同的測量方式，在認同強弱度上與選民的相關政治態度及政治行爲是否符合「遞移性」的假設；其次，以個別政黨喜好差異來檢證選民在認同方向上是否具有「多面向性」；最後，嘗試建構單一面向的「藍綠政黨喜好差異指標」，以提高選民投票行為的解釋力。研究結果顯示，台灣選舉與民主化調查的政黨認同測量方式，在認同強弱度的測量與分類上，不論與選民的政治態度、政治涉入還是投票行爲上，皆符合遞移性的假設。而在多面向的檢證上，則有二成以上的選民同時給予兩個以上政黨相同最高的喜好分數，尤其是以泛藍或泛綠政黨評價一致最高最常見，此外，以政黨喜好差異來進行測量，將可有效降低民眾持中立態度一成以上的比例。至於本文提出以泛藍、泛綠爲基礎的「藍綠政黨喜好差異指標」，不但與選民的投票抉擇有更高的關連性，其單一面向的強弱度亦對選民投票抉擇具有更佳的遞移性，提供解釋選民投票抉擇的另一項新選擇。

關鍵字

政黨認同 ； 遞移性 ； 多面向測量

並列摘要

The major purpose of this article is to examine the measurement of party identification in the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) from the perspectives of intransitivity and multidimensionality. Furthermore, an index of blue-green party difference is constructed to measure the voters' relative preference between the pan-blue camp and the pan-green camp in order to better account for their voting decision. It is found that the measurement of party identification in TEDS is successful with regard to the transitivity assumption. The fact that more than twenty percent of respondents share the highest score for the major parties indicates the presence of multidimensionality in this measurement. Last, it also empirically demonstrated that the index of blue-green party difference is a better measure because of its evident transitivity and its stronger statistical association with voting decision.

並列關鍵字

party identification ； transitivity ； multidimensional measurement

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