台灣紙漿暨造紙工業之供給與需求彈性：無母數分析

A Nonparametric Analysis of Output Supply and Input Demand: The Case of Taiwan's Pulp and Paper Industry

許景翔(Jiing-Shyang Hseu)

《台灣林業科學》 17卷1期 (2002/03) Pp. 87-98

https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.200203.0087

摘要

供給與需求分析是為瞭解台灣紙漿暨造紙工業經濟必要的研究。本文利用無母數法，在合乎利潤最大化的結果下，推衍出長期的供給與需求彈性。無母數法毋需假設特定之利潤函數，而且自身價格彈性必定合乎理論的預期。此外，該法亦容許使用多產出、多投入之數據資料。本研究之資料爲自1981至1994年台灣紙漿暨造紙工亡業的產出銷售與投入支出相關數據，共計有5種產出及7種投入。結果顯示：相對於價格變動20%之弧彈性幾近滿足供給／需求函數局部齊次與價格導函數對稱性的要求。幾乎所有自身價格供給彈性皆火於1。而自身需求彈性則界於-0.8與-2.3之間。

關鍵字

無母數法 ； 利潤最大化 ； 供給彈性 ； 需求彈性

並列摘要

Demand and supply relationships are required for an understanding of the economics of Taiwan's pulp and paper industry. In this report, long-term supply and demand elasticities were derived with a nonparametric method exploiting the consequences of the weak axiom of profit maximization (WAPM). No assumptions were imposed on the form of the profit function, and all own-price elasticities necessarily had the expected theoretical signs. Due to an infinite number of quantity responses being consistent with the theory and data, finding a unique response required a new assumption: quantities were adjusted just enough to satisfy the WAPM. Data sets pertaining to the pulp and paper industry of Taiwan from 1981 to 1994 were fitted to the model. Five outputs and seven inputs were recognized. A price shock of 20% led to elasticities that closely satisfied local homogeneity of the supply/demand functions, and the symmetry of price derivatives. All output supplies were elastic, or nearly so, with respect to their own prices. The own-price elasticities of input demand ranged from -0.8 to -2.3.

並列關鍵字

profit maximization ； supply ； demand ； nonparametric ； price elasticity