臺灣紙漿與紙需求模型之研究

Econometric Model of Demand for Pulp and Paper in Taiwan

陳溢宏(Yih-Horng Chen)

《林業試驗所研究報告季刊》 6卷4期 (1991/12) Pp. 367-371

https://doi.org/10.7075/BTFRI.199112.0367

摘要

本研究之目的在於建立臺灣紙漿與紙類之需求模式，為求模式發展之便利，將臺灣紙漿造紙工業之產品分為紙漿與紙類兩部份，透過所導出之需求模式實用式，分別以紙漿造紙工業資料加以驗證，得到下列結論：紙漿之紙及紙板生產量引申需求彈性接近於1，紙漿之價格彈性很小；紙類之經濟指標影響彈性（實質國民生產毛額消費彈性）接近於l，紙類之價格彈性很小。其完成95%之部份修正期為紙漿2.47季；紙類2.04季。

關鍵字

需求模式 ； 市場消費量 ； 長期需求彈性

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to develop a demand model for the pulp and paper in Taiwan. This led to the empirical demand model expessing current consumption as a linear function of industrial activity, current price, current stocks, lagged consumption, and lagged stocks. Major determinant factor of pulp consumption is production of total paper and paperboard, while paper consumption is real gross national product. For a 95 precent adjustmant of demand after changes in economic condition reguired a pericod of about 2.47 quarters for pulp, 2.04 quarters for paper.

並列關鍵字

Demand model ； Apparant consumption ； Long-term elasticity of demand