本研究之目的在於試圖以客觀量化資料,評估各組勞動力結構性失業惡化的程度。研究中所採用的灰預測發展係數,應為一可行指標,日後進行結構性失業惡化程度評估時,除了主觀觀察之外,還可考量此一量化指標。 本研究使用Gordon所提出之方法衡量結構性失業。但評估結構性失業惡化與否為一時間序列的問題,乃利用灰預測中的發展係數進行評估。 研究發現不同年齡層勞動力中,不論男女均為青少年組已發生結構性失業,且在惡化中;而女性青壯年勞動力,雖未發生結構性失業問題,但有迅速惡化跡象,值得注意後續變化。不同教育程度男性勞動力中,基層與中等教育組已發生結構性失業,所幸日有改善;女性均未發生結構性失業;但以惡化程度而言,則以高等教育程度勞動人力的惡化趨勢,較引人注意。
This study uses the development factors of Grey Forecasting Model to examine the degree of structural unemployment on twenty workforce groups. Empirical results show that the development factor could be a valid and object indicator when we try to judge the trend of structural unemployment from a time series data set. In addition, the results reveal that the structural unemployment by age: (1) youth workforce continues to grow; (2) female whose age is between 25-44 has grown rapidly. Meanwhile, the empirical results show that structural unemployment by education: (1) male who is or less than senior high school has declined slightly; (2) the workforce who is or above university goes up.