以空間模型探討台北與新北市之失能人口之分布情形

台灣地區數十年之生育率及死亡率的雙重下降，加速了人口老化與高齡社會之日趨嚴重。當老年人的平均壽命延長時，伴隨著生理機能衰退以及失能人口逐年增加。過去研究多是對台灣失能人口數及失能率之推估，較少對其分佈及因素之探討研究。因此本文對台北與新北市失能人口資料，作全域與地區型空間自相關，與結構可增廻歸（STAR）模型之三面向探討其分佈及影響因子之空間分析。結果顯示相關變數於雙北之中偏西南區域呈現高數值群聚之明顯空間相依，在東部區域則為低數值群聚現象；醫療資源有關之變數亦是如此顯著影響失能人口分佈，並與貝氏空間STAR模型之醫療資源較完善或人口密度較高者亦是之結果相呼應。期望此研究能俾相關單位改善提升偏鄉地區之醫療資源措施，而據此均衡社會資源。

關鍵字

失能人口；空間統計；全域空間自相關；地區型空間自我相關；結構可增廻歸模型

並列摘要

The decline of fertility and mortality rates in Taiwan for decades has been expediting the aging population and society on the rise. On account of the extension of the average life expectancy of the elderly, a progressive degeneration of normal physiological functioning occurs so gradually that the disabled population keeps growing year by year. Originally, researches focused on the estimation of the size and rates of disabled population in Taiwan, with less study on the exploration of the distribution and causes correspondingly. Therefore, via the data sets of disabled populations in Taipei and New Taipei cities, three aspects of investigations, global spatial association (Moran's I), local indicators of spatial association (LISA), and the structured additive regression (STAR) models are applied to research into spatial analysis and the impact factors for the distribution of relevant information in all administrative districts of both cities. Then similar results and conclusions are reached as high crowd gathering (H-H) assembled in the center toward southwestern areas, scattering dispersal (L-L) around eastern regions of two cities, and so do certain variates under study and affect significantly. Likewise, regions with better medical resources or with denser population demonstrate in the STAR models as well. Expect all the findings in this paper to facilitate associated departments or units to improve and enhance medical resources measures in remote areas, and thus to balance social resources accordingly.

並列關鍵字

disability ； spatial statistics ； Global Spatial Autocorrelation ； Local Indicators of Spatial Association ； Structured Additive Regression model

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