由於台灣地區隨著生育率及死亡率的雙重下降,人口呈現快速老化現象,因此高齡化社會的現象日趨嚴重(內政部 2012)。當老年人的平均壽命延長時,伴隨而來的便是因生理機能衰退,或是因罹患慢性疾病而導致失能狀態的產生,以致失能人口逐年增加。 過去在研究台灣失能人口主題時,大多著重於失能人口數及失能率之推估,較少著眼於造成各地區失能人口分佈狀況及因素之探討。本研究利用台北市與新北市政府主計處以及衛生局所提供的各行政區之失能人口等資料(2011年)進行研究,希望能夠找出雙北各行政區失能人口分佈之相關因素。 本文進行全域空間自相關、地區型空間自我相關之分析以及建構結構可增迴歸模型(Structured Additive Regression Models)來探討雙北地區的失能人數是否存在空間相關性,以瞭解哪些因素會影響失能人口之分佈,以利相關單位作為提升社會福利措施之參考。
Due to the decline in both fertility and mortality rates, and the rapid aging of the population in Taiwan, the phenomenon of an aging society is on the rise (Ministry of the Interior 2012). When the extension of the average life expectancy of the elderly, and with it, physiological function decaying, or disability caused by chronic disease, result in increasing disabled population. In the past, most researches have focused on the estimation of Taiwan disabled population and disability rates, with less emphasis on the analysis of causes and distribution of the disabled population. This study employs the data of disabled population in all the administrative districts provided by the Bureau of Budget, Account and Statistics, and Public Health Department of Taipei and New Taipei Cities (2011) to do the research, hoping to find out related factors of the distribution of disability population. In this paper, global spatial autocorrelation and local indicators of spatial association are analyzed, and the Structured Additive Regression Models is constructed to investigate whether there exists spatial correlation of disability distribution in both Taipei and New Taipei Cities, to understand what factors affect the distribution of disabled population, as a reference for related units to promote social welfare measures.