臺灣農地變遷跨尺度作用力分析-1990年到2005年

Multi-scale Driving Forces Analysis of Agricultural Land Use Change in Taiwan : 1990–2005

朱健銘(Chien-Min Chu)

指導教授 ： 蔡博文

國立臺灣大學/理學院/地理環境資源學研究所/博士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.03342

摘要

糧食的生產依賴土地的資源，而農地的減少會威脅到未來的糧食安全，在全球化與全球環境變遷的影響下，影響農地變遷的因子更加的複雜。國際農業貿易協定、國家農業政策的調整與農民特質的改變，來自不同尺度的作用力影響著臺灣農地的變遷。
在本研究中，提出多尺度的架構來分析台灣在農業自由化的情況下，作用力如何影響農地變遷。在大尺度上，從相關文獻歸納出國家農業政策以農業結構轉型及提供工商業用地為主要方向，本研究並提出以農業產銷班及工商業家數，分別代表農業政策在鄉鎮尺度上的農業結構轉型程度與工商業發展程度的代理變數。在小尺度方面，以十個變數代表村里尺度內農戶的個人特質、家戶條件與經營狀態，應用階層線性模型來分析跨尺度作用力對農地變遷的影響程度。
研究結果顯示，在單一尺度模型中，村里尺度內的七個變數，包括農戶率的變化、指揮者年齡的變化、戶內人口數的變化、租用耕地比率的變化、稻作戶率的變化、農業收入低比率的變化及初始農地面積，這些變數對農地面積變化有顯著影響，而在跨尺度模型中只有農戶率的變化、租用耕地比率的變化、農業收入低比率的變化及初始農地面積，四個村里尺度的變數顯著。此外，鄉鎮尺度的產銷班數量會加強農戶率的變化與租用耕地比率的變化，對農地面積變化的正向影響程度；工商家數則會減少農戶率的變化與租用耕地比率的變化，對農地面積變化的正向影響程度，而加強農業收入低比率變化對農地面積變化的負向影響程度。從模型殘差值的空間分布來看，跨尺度作用力模型能夠更有效地解釋作用力變數與其跨尺度的交互影響關係。

關鍵字

土地利用變遷 ； 作用力 ； 階層線性模型

並列摘要

The loss of agricultural land has become a threat to food security as the food production strongly depends on land resources. What drives agricultural land use change is a complex issue. Globalization and global changes even make this issue more complicated. Different forces, such as global agricultural trade agreement, the adjustment of national agricultural policies, and farmer's characteristics, have driven the agricultural land use change in Taiwan at different scales.
This research aims to study the driving forces of agricultural land use change and their effects under the recent situation of agriculture trade liberalization by multi-scale approach in Taiwan. In order to conduct a multi-scale analysis, firstly, based on literature review, this research concluded two national agricultural policies, agriculture restructuring and farmland release for development, as the main driving forces at larger scale. Then, the numbers of farmer teams and enterprise units were chosen as the variable surrogates of the two policies, respectively, for the township-scale analysis. Ten variables were also selected to represent farmer behaviors, household conditions and management types at the village scale. Finally, this research applied a hierarchical linear model to analyze and understand these variables’ effects to agricultural land use change at different levels.
The results show that at the village scale, seven factors including the change of farmer-household ratio, age of household director, household population, non-self-owned cultivated land ratio, rice planting ratio, low agricultural income ratio and initial cultivated land area, were significantly related to the change of farmland area in single-scale model. However, in the multi-scale model, only the change of farmer-household ratio, non-self-owned cultivated land ratio, low agricultural income ratio and initial cultivated land area were significantly related to the change of the area. Furthermore, at township scale, the number of farmer teams will increase the change of farmer-household ratio and non-self-owned cultivated land ratio, and consequently influences farmland area change. On the contrary, the number of enterprise units will decrease the change of farmer-household ratio and non-self-owned cultivated land ratio and increase the low agricultural income ration, and then causes a negative feedback to the farmland area change. According to the spatial distribution of residual values, this research revealed that the multi-scale model presents a better ability to explain the driving forces of agricultural land use change, and demonstrate their interactions across different scales.

並列關鍵字

land use change ； driving force ； hierarchical linear model

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