中國非發展金援的政治風險分析

The Political Risks of Chinese Non-Development Finance

平思寧(Szu-Ning Ping) ； 王靖興(Ching-Hsing Wang) ； 王諠勉(Hsuan-Mien Wang)

《台灣政治學刊》 26卷2期 (2022/12) Pp. 179-234

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.202212_26(2).0004

摘要

中國的援助與傳統上的發展援助有很大的差異，中國整體對外援助有很大的商業色彩，其中的非發展金援甚至比發展金援數量更多，本文即欲探討，中國包裹在「援助」之下的非發展金援，但是實為「類FDI」的資金是否會與FDI一樣受到當地國家政治風險所影響？我們提出三個假設：中國非發展金援會受到政治制度、貪腐，以及政治穩定三個政治風險影響。利用AidData中的「中國全球發展金援資料庫2.0」（AidData's Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset, version 2.0），檢視中國在2000年到2017年對外較不具備發展條件的金援的不同類別，作者發現只有貪腐顯著影響中國對外的非發展金援，越貪腐的國家較可能獲得中國更多的類FDI，政治制度無法影響中國給予非發展金援的決定，而唯一會受到國內政治不穩定的地影響，只有對於能源與礦業的金援。這樣的結果也符合過去一些文獻對於跨國公司對於當地國貪腐的看法，國家的貪腐可能是外國資金的幫手，而非阻礙，而中國也在各種非發展金援的給予中印證了這樣的偏好。

關鍵字

中國非發展援助 ； 貪腐 ； 政治穩定 ； 政治風險 ； 中國對外援助

並列摘要

Scholars see Chinese foreign aid very differently from traditional ODA (official development assistance) due to its inherently commercial essence. Not surprisingly, Chinese non-development finance (NDF) greatly outweighs standard ODA in the total amount. As the quasi-FDI is disguised by foreign aid, the authors try to find out how political risks influence the location of Chinese NDF in recipient countries. Based on the previous literature and the characteristics of Chinese aid, we provide three hypotheses that the Chinese NDF does not consider the political institutions in recipient countries, but that it does take into account the local corruption and political stability. Using a dataset based on AidData's Global Chinese Development Finance Dataset (version 2.0), we confirm the first and second hypotheses, but the third only partly. We confirm that political institutions will not be decisive in allocating Chinese NDF, but more corrupt countries are preferred. However, only financial flows in the energy and mining industries will significantly obviate an unstable political environment.

並列關鍵字

Chinese Non-developmental Aid ； Corruption ； Political Stability ； Political Risk ； Chinese Foreign Aid

參考文獻

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