中國財政風險與積極財政政策之實證研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Fiscal Risks and Proactive Fiscal Policy-the Case of China

凃春永(Chuen-Yeong Too)

《建國科大學報》 24卷2期 (2005/01) Pp. 133-152

https://doi.org/10.6995/JCTU.200501.0133

摘要

1998年為因應亞洲金融風暴，提振內需之不足，中國政府採行了積極的財政政策(Proactive Fiscal Policy)，擴充預算赤字，大舉發行國家公債。按中國人民銀行統計，2001年國債餘額為1兆5,618億元人民幣，為採行該政策前1997年5,509億元人民幣之2.8倍。不可諱言，國債發行適時取代了中國民間及外資的投資缺口，確保了經濟的持續發展，然而，卻也引發了財政危機的議題，造成一連串學術論證的爭辯。這些觀點，主要集中在國債風險指標，少數擴及經濟增長理論，前者如歐盟的馬斯垂克條（Masstricht Treaty 中國翻譯為馬斯特理赫條約），後者如Cobb-Douglas生長函數迴歸分析。本研究採用政府預算方程式(Budget Equation)實證中國GDP成長、利率變動、債務餘額及財政穩定機制之關係，以增強上述觀點之偏頗。實證發現雖然目前並沒有立即的財政風險，但為確保積極財政政策獲得最佳效率，中國政府應：(1)確保GDP增長凌駕於利率增長之上；(2)加速財政與預算體制之改革；(3)繼續提昇財政收入稽徵與行政效能；(4)盡速建立一個透明且流動性強的二級市場與(5)擬訂逐步淡化積極財政政策之機制。

關鍵字

積極財政政策 ； 風險指標 ； 政府預算方程式

並列摘要

In coping with the financial crisis of 1998, promoting domestic demand, China government took on proactive fiscal policy, expanded budget deficit and issued large amount of public debt. Based on the statistics by the China People's Bank, the balance of the public debt was 1 trillion 561 billions and 8 hundred millions RMB, 2.8 times of 550 billions and 9 hundred millions RMB back in 1997 before such proactive fiscal policy. Without a doubt, the large amount of public debt did secure the gap caused by weak foreign investments and ensured the continual development in economics activities. However, it did also raise the subject of financial crisis and triggered series of academic debates. These view points were mainly focused on the risk indicators of public debt and a few expanded to theories in economic growth, with the Masstricht treaty of EU and the growth function regression analysis of Cobb-Douglas represented respectively. This research adopted budget equation to verify China GDP growth, rate fluctuation, debt balance, and fiscal stability mechanism to enhance deviations in the above points. It evidenced that though with no immediate danger in their fiscal position, but for ensuring optimal efficiency in the proactive fiscal policy, China government should: (1) ensure GDP growth exceeds the growth of rates, (2) quicken the reform in fiscal and budget system, (3) continuing promotion in auditing and collecting fiscal incomes and administration efficiency, (4) establish a transparent and highly liquid secondary market ASAP, and (5) plan for a mechanism to gradually diminishing the influence of the proactive fiscal policy.

並列關鍵字

Proactive fiscal policy ； risk indicator ； government budget equation