公車專用道對公車業者營收與成本之影響

公車專用道是一項有效改善公車營運環境的非金錢補貼方式，過去文獻對於公車專用道績效的衡量，多以社會整體或道路使用者為研究對象，沒有研究探討公車專用道對公車業者的影響。由於專用道的設置僅限於部份路段，各家公車業者之營業範圍與營運路線又不同，因此公車專用道對各家業者之影響必有差異，或為程度之不同，或為利弊之不同，上述差異即是本研究探討的課題。本研究蒐集台北市十家聯營公車業者自民國79年1月至85年12月每月營運資料，應用ARIMA時間序列預測方法，分析公車專用道對於各家業者營收與成本的影響，結果顯示公車專用道確可有效提昇公車系統整體運量，但對個別業者之影響則差異甚大，甚至會有受害的情形發生，值得重視。

關鍵字

公車專用道；時間序列；公車營運

並列摘要

Bus lanes have been considered as effective measure to improve bus operation in metropolitan areas. Past studies on the evaluation of bus lane performance focused on its impacts on road users. Little has been done to analyze its impacts on individual bus operator. In Taipei, there are more than ten bus companies. Each has different territory and bus routes. Since bus lanes are provided on segments of eight arterial roads, the impacts on each bus company may be different. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of bus lanes on revenue, cost and profit of each individual bus operator. This study collects historical monthly operation data of ten bus operators in Taipei. By using a time series statistical technique (ARIMA), revenue and cost of each bus operator can be projected for the scenario of no bus lanes. By comparing the projection with the actual performance with bus lanes, effects of bus lanes on revenue, cost and profit of each bus operator can be obtained. The result of this study shows that implementation of bus lanes in Taipei results in a significant increase of bus patronage by 22 million riders for the entire bus system in eleven months. Its impacts on each bus operator are different. Among the studied ten operators, five of them gained profit, while the other five underwent profit loss.

並列關鍵字

Bus lane ； Bus operation ； ARIMA

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