貨櫃航商與港埠建立夥伴關係之風險分析

Risk Analysis of Partnership between Container Carrier and Port Operator

馮正民(Cheng-Min Feng) ； 曹至宏(Chih-Hong Tsao)

《運輸學刊》 16卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 247-278

摘要

貨櫃航商貨櫃航商與港埠經營業基於創造彼此市場競爭優勢，構建夥伴關係乃其經營策略之一，惟風險係構建夥伴關係之核心課題。為能了解夥伴關係本質與目的，本研究乃建立一套夥伴關係建立之風險分析模式，以夥伴關係主觀認知與實際客觀估算之獲利間所產生差距除以標準差評估風險。本研究初步將夥伴關係以三種類型，四個風險因子以及兩個階段之隨機過程構建分析模式。模式案例分析情境係分別考慮基隆港務局與貨櫃航商兩方立場評估夥伴關係風險，模擬結果發現夥伴關係存在資源投入與獲利及夥伴感知落差間具有正相關之特性；而隨貨櫃航商市場占有率規模增大，參與者受之落差將增大。在以港埠經營者之立場模擬預期落差，則發現與低市場占有率之貨櫃航商合作，發生獲利不如預期之機會大，但隨航商規模增大，發生預期落差之機會將隨之增高。

關鍵字

夥伴關係 ； 港埠 ； 風險 ； 蒙地卡羅模擬

並列摘要

Facing market competition, container carrier and port operator will establish a strategic partnership to gain an advantage. Risk is the core issue of the partnership. For understanding the nature and purposes of partnership, this paper examines the risk by evaluating the ratio of gap between subjective and objective expected profits to the standard deviation. Three types of partnership, four risk factors, and two stages of risk stochastic process are formulated. In the case study, this paper evaluates the partnering risk for both the Keelung Harbor Bureau and container carriers. The simulation results indicate that input resources have a positive correlation with the expected revenue of partnering as well as the gap of the partner's perception. Moreover, the more market share the container carrier has, the greater the gap is. It is also shown that the port operator would expect larger revenue gap when partnering with a container carrier possessing more market share. From the port operator viewpoint, partnership with the lower market share container carrier will have a larger gap in expected revenue. The larger the size of container carrier is, the more gap the expect revenue has.

並列關鍵字

Partnership ； Port ； Risk ； Monte-Carlo simulation

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