柔性鋪面績效預測模式構建程序之研究

鋪面績效預測模式不僅可預測未來鋪面服務績效，更可對鋪面管理系統之設計、維修養護及評估等次系統提供強而有力的協助，是鋪面管理系統中重要的一環。本文首先闡述鋪面績效預測模式之多種構建型式；再配合實際訪問國內鋪面養護單位，提出六項本土化鋪面績效預測模式之評估要項。本研究發現，鋪面家族模式為國內目前最適合採用的鋪面績效預測模式，並建立其構建程序。最後則選取若干省道路段，蒐集其鋪面狀況資料，進行鋪面服務績效預測模式構建程序實例分析。

關鍵字

績效預測；鋪面管理系統；鋪面家族模式

並列摘要

Pavement performance prediction models play an important role in pavement management systems. They can not only predict pavement future conditions, but also provide valuable information to subsystems of pavement management systems, such as design, maintenance, and evaluation subsystems. This paper first presents various methods of developing the prediction models. After interviewing domestic highway agencies, six criteria for evaluating the development methodologies are decided. Then, the model of pavement family curves is assessed most suitable for Taiwan highway agencies. The process of model development is presented. The possible parameters used to present pavement performance and relevant factors are also given in this paper. Through the case study, it is found that the recommended method is quite promising.

並列關鍵字

Performance Prediction ； Pavement Management System ； Pavement Family Curves

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