- 期刊
El Maghara Scenario a Search for Sustainability and Equity: An Egyptian Case
並列摘要
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is an international initiative that means to advise decision makers on the impact of development on environmental setting and human well being. The MA is a multi-scale assessment consisting of interlinked assessments undertaken at local, national, regional and global scales. The sub-global assessments will directly meet the needs of decision-makers at the scale at which they are undertaken, strengthen the global finding on the reality ground and reinforce the local findings with global perspectives, data and models. In Egypt, an MA local community Subglobal assessment was conducted in El Maghara, North Sinai, one of the poorest, most arid, and most marginalized parts of Egypt. El Maghara is exclusively inhabited by Bedouin, characterized by a special lifestyle, predominantly governed by local knowledge. The El Maghara assessment followed the conceptual framework of MA in which ecosystem services were identified, trends and conditions were monitored. The conceptual framework also included scenario building to provide an insight to the plausible future of the assessment and to the uncertainties that may surge up, affecting people and their environment. The paper is organized as follows. In section 1, we introduce the problem, and the objectives of the study. In section 2, we outline the scenario process framework. In section 3, we identify the key drivers via the MIC-MAC method. In section 4, we analyze the objectives and positions of the key stakeholders via the Mactor method. In section 5, we utilize both quantitative and qualitative approaches-that build on the results of the MIC-MAC and Mactor methods-to portray how storyline scenarios may unfold. Finally we conclude in section 6.