Climate Change and Hydro-conflicts-The Storylines of Sudr Scenarios: A Platform for Adaptation

Mohamed Tawfic Ahmed ； Mohamed A Osman ； Naglaa Loutfy ； Mahmoud Farag Mahmoud

《Journal of Futures Studies》 17卷2期 (2012/12) Pp. 75-91

並列摘要

Ras Sudr, located on the Gulf of Suez, South Sinai, is a typical arid area inhabited mostly by Bedouin, a special group of Egyptians with specific ethnic characters and traditions. Ras Sudr is one of the vulnerable areas of Egypt to climatic externalities, including drought and flashfloods. On occasional basis, the area experience brief but intense rainfall during winter, causing severe flashfloods. The area has also been suffering severe drought for the last few years, with some serious impacts on people and environment. In addition to natural drivers, a number of man-made drivers are affecting the quality of life, with significant bearing on Ras Sudr ability to cope with climate change extreme events. Governance, land use pattern, flashflood and drought management are major drivers that influence Ras Sudr resilience to climate change and the ability of Bedouin to adapt. Inefficient management of flashfloods and drought have always been a potential source of conflicts between Bedouin and governance, with frequent manifestation of violence, dismay and discontent. Local knowledge is playing a remarkable role within Sudr community. Bedouin have developed a remarkable repository of local knowledge accumulating through long years that they use as a think tank in all aspects of their lives and in crisis management. In the present study, four scenarios are presented to depict how future may unfold in view of the impacts caused by climate change, and the man-made drivers that shape future adaptation. The scenarios presented in this study are also considered as a platform of how adaptation measures to climate changes could be formulated, and how to plan future response to Sudr vulnerability and how to boost its resilience to climate change.

並列關鍵字

Ras Sudr ； climate change ； flashfloods ； drought ； hydro-conflicts ； adaptation