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Russian Aggression against Ukraine: Past, Present, and Futures

摘要


The paper examines peculiarities and futures of the Ukrainian-Russian war, the hot phase of which began in February, 2022. Using causal layered analysis, the reasons for the large-scale war-as well as underlying theories, worldviews and myths-are identified and linked together. The main factors that have not allowed Russia to achieve the expected results in the first two months of the invasion are identified. The analysis concludes with four scenarios for future developments: "westernization", "Ukraine's own way", "postponed war", and "apocalypse".

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