臺灣地區醫師人力資源之分析與評估

A Hypothetical Model to Forecast Physician-Manpower Ratio in Taiwan

蔡哲雄(Jir-Shiong Tsai) ； 黃雁(Yen Huang)

《Journal of Medical Education》 3卷4期 (1999/12) Pp. 369-380

https://doi.org/10.6145/jme.199912_3(4).0005

摘要

雖然醫師與人口的比例，因醫療科技及行爲的變遷而有不同的意義，但是，一般仍以此數字來分析不同國度的醫療普及度。根據台灣衛生署的資料顯示，目前台灣醫師與人口的比例爲1:845，爲達到醫療普及的政策目標，經建會期望在民國九十五年時將此比例提升爲1:741。此研究是假設台灣的醫學院畢業生人數維持不變，再依據人口統計推估三十年中的人口結構變化，來推算未來醫師／人口的比例。如果根據衛生署及醫師公會之統計數據分析，台灣醫師之平均執業年限估計値分別爲35年及45年，演算的結果爲：執業年限35年，則民國95年時可達到每名醫師服務740人口數；執業年限45年，則民國93年左右達到每名醫師服務740人口的目標。此推論可提供作爲將來是否增加醫學院學生之參考。

關鍵字

醫師人力 ； 醫師人口比例

並列摘要

The physician-population ratio has beenused as one indicator of the standard of healthcare in various communities.A higher ratio reflectsgreater availability of medical care for thegeneral population and may also serve as a parameterto plan the size of classes of medicaleducational facilities.The current ratio is 1physician per 845 people in Taiwan.The Ministerof Health in Taiwan plans to increase thisratio to 1 physician per 740 people by the year2006.However,demographics of the Taiwanesepopulation will gradually change over the nextdecades.The need for”new”physicians mayhave to be adjusted according to changes in thepopulation if the ratio of physicians to populationwill still be one indicator of health care.We estimate the total number of physicians andcalculate the physician-population ratio inTaiwan based on statistical information andforecast figures available from the Departmentof Health and the Ministry of Education of thenext 30 years.The total number of”active”physicians will be more than double the currentnumber if physicians remain in practice formore than 40 years after graduation.However,this ratio will be lower than 1 physician per 740people if physicians maintain their active practicefor 30 years after being licensed.If physiciansare willing to practice more than 40 years,the ratio may become approximately 1 physicianper 500 people by the year 2007.(FullText in Chinese)

並列關鍵字

physician manpower ； physician population ratio