以專利引證網絡分析探討技術發展之動態演化

Investigating Dynamic Evolution of Technology Development by Patent Citation Network Analysis

李沛錞(Pei-Chun Lee) ； 蘇信寧(Hsin-Ning Su)

《科技管理學刊》 14卷3期 (2009/09) Pp. 64-107

https://doi.org/10.6378/JTM.200909.0064

摘要

技術發展軌跡的相關文獻強調主流技術與技術典範對技術創新過程的影響，用以解釋技術的發展是逐漸分化或逐漸趨向融合。本研究將奈米複合材料專利間的引證關係視為一個具體的網絡組成要素，結合演化學派對技術進步的定義：「是一種動態隨機的調整過程」運用專利引證分析，瞭解專利技術於網絡中之定位以及技術網絡結構隨時間之動態變化」透過呈現技術的累積、漸趨複雜化與共同演化等網絡結構變化，探討技術領域的動態變遷，進而對專利技術的發展及演進提供一個全面性及巨觀的理解。並且透過發展專利引證網絡指標，例如技術擴散動量、技術融合動量、技術被接近性、技術接近性及技術中介性，描繪出技術的競合及演化，期望能對技術演化模式及軌跡之理論發展有所貢獻。除了可提供科技政策制定者一兼具宏觀視野與微觀脈絡的技術演化歷程，從而預測該發展脈絡將如何推展至未來技術擴散與融合的可能情境，將成為國家科技政策制定者或科技管理者進行技術預測與評估時的重要工具。

關鍵字

專利引證 ； 網絡理論 ； 技術演化 ； 技術動量

並列摘要

It can be found from literatures that technological trajectory has been significantly investigated by understanding the influence of mainstream technology and mainstream technological paradigm on technological innovation process, in order to explain the direction of a technological development leads to diversification or convergence. This study aims to, on the basis of social network analysis, use patents and citations among nanocomposite patents as substantial network components, and also apply the concept of evolution-”technological process is a dynamic stochastic process”, to understand dynamics of a technological network composed of patents with changing network properties along time horizon. Therefore, technology development and evolution can be quantitatively evaluated by technological development indicators, e.g. momentum of technological diffusion, momentum of technological convergence, technological in-accessibility, technological out-accessibility and technological intermediacy, which are associated with various network properties and are first proposed in this study. In summary, not only technological evolution model and technological trajectory theory are contributed, but also a quantitative way of technology assessment for policy maker and technology manager is demonstrated in this study.

並列關鍵字

Patent Citation ； Network Theory ； Technological Evolution ； Technological Momentum

參考文獻

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