Appling GM (1,1) to Predict the Tourists Quantity-A Case of National Park in Taiwan

Chih-Jiun Lin ； Ban-Yu Jhuo ； Tsu-Ming Yeh

《Journal of Grey System》 17卷3期 (2014/09) Pp. 139-144

並列摘要

The GM(1,1) of grey system theory has be adopted in a variety of ranges, and it features forecasting through small amounts of data. This research predicts the tourists of Taiwan National Parks by using GM(1,1) and other two kinds modified GM(1,1), which are modified 2-years-period GM(1,1) model and modified 3-years-period GM(1,1) model. Among these three methods, the result of modified 3-years-period GM(1,1) is the best, and the mean error of modified 3-years-period GM(1,1) is 1.1%. Through the study of the paper, except the results can be used as further reference for the government and further researchers that who want to touch this filed.

並列關鍵字

GM(1,1) ； Tourist ； National park ； 2-years-period ； 3-years-period