Designing a Grey Prediction Model Based on Genetic Algorithm for Better Forecasting International Tourist Arrivals

Hau-Ting Nian

《Journal of Grey System》 19卷1期 (2016/03) Pp. 7-11

並列摘要

The paper presents an improved method to forecast the inbound tourism trends in Taiwan. Accurate forecasting of inbound tourism is imperative to formulate tourism planning for both the public and business sectors. The tourist statistics is easily affected due to the impacts of political and economic uncertainties, which directly affect the difficulty of forecasting trends in this industry. The goal of this study is to overcome these constraints and establish an enhanced forecasting model. The grey forecasting model, which has been widely used in various forecasting fields, still has some demerits that need to be improved. Therefore, a combination of grey theory and genetic algorithms is proposed, with the background value of GM(1,1) grey model optimized based on genetic algorithm. The result shows that this model has higher fitting and predictive precision than original GM(1,1) model.

並列關鍵字

International tourist arrival ； Prediction ； GM(1,1) ； Genetic algorithm