「醫師」是一個具有高度專業性且獨占性的行業,其時時刻刻肩付著維護國人健康的神聖使命,因而必須歷經嚴格的考選與訓練,方可勝任,絕非人人可輕易取而代之的行業。醫師的養成教育必需花費許許多多的時間與金錢,而「牙醫師」對於全體國民口腔健康的維護與促進,更扮演著舉足輕重、無可取代的角色。 適宜的牙醫師人力規劃,不僅影響了高中畢業生的升學就業傾向,更直接影響了國人的口腔健康與國家的興衰成敗,任何人皆必須正視。倘若牙醫師人力規劃失當,讓眾多優秀的莘莘學子,放棄選擇其它行業的機會,進而誤入牙醫師的行列,更因而培育出多餘的牙醫師人力,如此不僅是莘莘學子個人的損失,更是社會國家難以彌補的傷害。 本研究旨在探討臺灣地區牙醫師人力供給與需求之現況,並採用灰色理論之灰色預測GM(1,1)模式進行預測,藉由1998年至2007年之歷史數據進行探討,並順利推估出2008年至2011年臺灣地區未來牙醫師人力供給與需求之狀況。其研究結果顯示:2008年至2011年臺灣地區未來牙醫師人力呈現供過於求的現象,且有逐年上升之趨勢,企盼藉由本研究之成果能提供衛生主管機關,擬定未來牙醫師人力資源政策之參考,為臺灣地區國人的健康奉獻一己的心力。 關鍵字:灰色預測模式、牙醫師、供給、需求
The term “physician” represents an industry of absolute professionalism and dedication. Physicians, the few and the proud, are charged with the health of the public and have to undergo stringent examinations and training that require much time and money. Among physicians, dentists are the irreplaceable individuals who look after the public’s oral hygiene. An appropriate planning of the population of dentists not only influences how high school graduates choose their next step but also directly affects the public’s oral hygiene and even the nation’s strength, making this issue an important one. A faulty planning would cause many hard-working students to enter dentistry and give up other opportunities, resulting in an over-supply of dentists, a waste of time for students, and lack of important specialists in other domains. The purpose of this study is to examine the supply and demand of dentists in Taiwan. Using the Grey Forecast Model GM(1,1) of the Grey System Theory based on the data from 1998 to 2007, the supply/demand of dentists in Taiwan from 2008 to 2011 can be predicted. The findings indicated that from 2008 to 2011, there would be an oversupply of dentists in Taiwan, and such imbalance is on the rise annually. It is wished that the findings may serve as a reference for the authorities when formulating policies regarding the sources of dentists in the future. Keywords: Grey Forecast Model, Dentist, Supply, Demand