臺灣地區未來醫師人力供需研究－灰色預測模式之應用

The Grey Prediction Model Applied to Physician Manpower Supply and Demand in Taiwan

何明宗(Ming-Tzung Ho)

《醫務管理期刊》 9卷4期 (2008/12) Pp. 255-270

https://doi.org/10.6174/JHM2008.9(4).255

摘要

目的：臺灣地區醫師人力自日據時代至1960年期間，持續處於極度供不應求的階段；但自1960年起，政府積極培育醫師人才，逐步增設醫學院校，臺灣醫師人力供需狀況，不僅擺脫以往「供不應求」的現象，更進而逐浙形成「供過於求」的現況。本研究主要針對「臺灣地區醫師人力供需」進行探討，並推算出預測成果，以利提供衛生主管機關，制訂醫師人力資源政策之參考。
方法：本研究採用灰色預測模式進行研究，並依據1998年至2006年的「中華民國醫師公會全國聯合會」「臺灣地區醫師人數」暨衛生署「全民健康保險統計年報」「年門診病人數」、「年住院病人數」的統計資料進行分析。
結果：2007年至2012年「臺灣地區醫師人力」供過於求失衡百分率，依「年門診病人數統計」而言，分別爲13.72%、16.69%、19.73%、22.85%、26.05%及29.34%；而依「年住院病人數統計」而言，則分別爲17.09%、20.94%、24.91%、29.02%、33.25%及37.63%；因而研究結果明確顯示：2007年至2012年「臺灣地區醫師人力」「供給量」均大於「需求量」，且失衡百分率呈現逐年遞增的趨勢。
結論：醫師人力供過於求的結果，將導致醫師工作機會降低，不僅是醫師個人的損失，更是國家人力資源的嚴重浪費；因而適當的醫師人力規劃，乃成爲現代化國家、社會所必須積極面對的課題。

關鍵字

臺灣 ； 灰色預測模式 ； 醫師人力 ； 供給 ； 需求

並列摘要

Objectives: Between the Japanese Colonial Period and the 1960's there was an acute shortage of physician manpower in Taiwan. In the 1960's the government began actively supporting physician training program and establishing new medical schools. This has not only seen an end to the doctor shortage but is now gradually leading to ”over-supply”. This study looks at the ”supply and demand for physician manpower in Taiwan” and produces a set of projections for the health authorities to formulate physician manpower policy.
Methods: This study makes use of the Grey Prediction Model based on the analysis of data between 1998~2006, namely the ”Number of physicians in Taiwan” published by the Taiwan Medical Association as well as the ”number of outpatients per year” and ”number of hospitalized patients per year” in the ”National Health Insurance Statistics Annual Report” from the Department of Health.
Results: Based on the ”annual outpatient statistics”, the supply and demand imbalance percentage for ”physician Manpower in Taiwan” between 2007 and 2012 were 13.72, 16.69, 19.73, 22.85, 27.05 and 29.34 respectively; as for ”annual hospitalized patient statistics”, the percentages were 17.09, 20.94, 24.91, 29.02, 33.25 and 37.63. The study found that between 2007 and 2012 the ”Supply” of ”physician Manpower in Taiwan” was consistently greater than ”Demand”, with the imbalance expected to grow every year as well.
Conclusions: The over-supply of physician manpower will lead to reduced job opportunities for physicians. This will not only affect physicians personally but also represent a serious waste of national human resources; The nation and society as a whole must therefore pay attention to proper physician manpower planning.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan ； Grey Prediction Model ； Physician Manpower ； Supply ； Demand

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