如何理解中國崛起？

How to Perceive the Rise of China?

高朗(Lang Kao)

《遠景基金會季刊》 7卷2期 (2006/04) Pp. 53-94

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.200604.0053

摘要

近二十餘年，中國大陸經濟快速增長，已成為東亞經濟發展的引擎，然而發展帶來的衝擊與中國未來可能的意圖，卻讓以美國為主的國際社會充滿焦慮。有的從現實主義觀點，認為中國無可避免將成為東亞新霸權，遲早會與美國發生衝突。亦有從自由主義角度，認為北京當前專注經濟發展，積極融入國際政經社會，儼然成為經貿大國，未必會走傳統軍事崛起的道路。
這篇論文試圖從理念的途徑，說明北京領導人對經濟發展及對外關係，其實已先有一套邏輯論述。如欲了解中國對外行為，必須掌握其思維方式。相對地，現實主義與自由主義，只是西方學界觀察國家行為的分析架構，如果北京領導人不是如此看待世界，也就很難以這
些理論來詮釋中國的外交行為。
1978年以來，中國以經濟發展為核心，強調外交須為經濟服務，因而如何爭取一個和平與穩定的國際環境，乃成了北京當局的首要任務。鄧小平提出和平與發展的對外政策，不僅是中共統治菁英的共識，且成為指導、評估對外政策的準繩與誘因制度，從而降低了以非和平手段處理對外關係的可能。
本文認為國際環境的演變與國家力量的變化，對於中國外交行為的影響，不能僅從西方的思維來理解，而應從中國國家發展的指導思想來推測可能的變化。本文也指出，北京當局的思維與界定國家利益的方式，可能隨領導階層危機、臺灣問題，以及能源匱乏，出現新的變化，進而衝擊和平與發展的對外政策。

關鍵字

中國崛起 ； 和平與發展 ； 現實主義 ； 自由主義 ； 臺灣

並列摘要

Over the past twenty-eight years, China has enjoyed a fast growing economy. The country shows an annual economic growth rate of nearly 9 percent. Analysts predict that China will become the second largest economy in the world by the year 2020. It is expected to become the world's largest in 2030. Realizing this trend, major countries around the world express their concern over the rise of China, while at the same time examining its implication to their interest.
This paper examines the rise of China from different perspectives. The American perspective approaches the issue from the angle of realists and liberals. Washington shows a tendency to mix two ideas into one when it comes to dealing with the changes in China. On the other hand, the Chinese perspective has its origins in Deng's idea about his country's development. Since 1978, under the leadership of Deng, Beijing has made the economy its top priority. To advance economic reform, Beijing devoted much effort in maintaining a stable and peaceful environment. For this reason, China transformed itself into a status quo country-a nation with no motive to become a hegemony. Even after Hu Jintao's ascension to power in 2002, Beijing did not change its overall development strategy. It is apparent that Americans and Chinese approach the issue of China's rise from entirely different frames. If we want a more accurate evaluation of the impact of Chinese development upon the world, it is perhaps better to put ourselves into Beijing's shoes. This is useful, especially in understanding how Beijing perceives the relationship between internal development and external peace.
In its conclusion, this paper attempts to analyze the conditions under which China may decide to change the priorities of its development strategy.

並列關鍵字

Rise of China ； Peace and Development ； Realism ； Liberalism ； Taiwan

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