反介入撒手鐧？解析解放軍的飛彈威脅

Assassin's Mace for Anti-access? Exploring the Missile Threats from People's Liberation Army

楊仕樂(Shih-Yueh Yang)

《遠景基金會季刊》 11卷3期 (2010/07) Pp. 99-131

https://doi.org/10.7063/PQ.201007.0099

摘要

解放軍近期的飛彈武力發展，被認為即將使美軍的介入陷於險境，但這卻是過度地誇大。彈道飛彈與巡弋飛彈都是消耗性武器，各有所長也各有不足，目前的技術固然嘗試結合兩者的特性，但仍無法根本改變飛彈先天的局限，延伸射程之餘還要提高精確度，飛彈單位成本將不斷上升，不易累積足夠數量突破美軍已部署的多層次飛彈防禦。因此，美軍介入臺海情勢的能力其實並未動搖，對美國而言，解放軍飛彈威脅的意義是政治性的，考驗著美國保衛臺灣的決心。對此，美國究竟會轉趨退縮還是轉趨堅決？需要吾人持續密切關注。

關鍵字

反介入 ； 彈道飛彈 ； 巡弋飛彈 ； 航空母艦 ； 飛彈防禦

並列摘要

The recent development of missile forces of People's Liberation Army (PLA) is claimed to gradually keep the U.S. intervention in Cross-Strait conflicts at bay. Nonetheless, this claim is an exaggeration. Ballistic missiles are fast and thus hard to intercept, but are expensive and inaccurate. In contrast, cruise missiles are inexpensive and accurate, but are slow and thus easy to intercept. Both are constrained by their inherent character as an expendable weapon. The longer the range, the higher the price; thus, the fewer the number, the less likely it is that the missiles can project destructive power towards targets, unless they are nuclear-armed. Furthermore, given that the cost increases with range, medium or intermediate range missiles are bound to be excessively expensive, and they are unlikely to neutralize the U.S. missile defense system. As a result, except China's immediate regions (such as Taiwan or U.S. forward deployments in East Asia), the PLA missile forces alone cannot pose a threat to the U.S. aircraft carriers or military bases in Guam. The implications of missile threats are rather political: to test the U.S. resolution to defend Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Anti-access ； Ballistic Missile ； Cruise Missile ； Aircraft Carrier ； Missile Defense

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