朝核問題衝擊下北韓對俄日的戰略選擇及東北亞面臨的安全困境

North Korea's Strategic Choices with Russia and Japan and the Security Dilemma of Northeast Asia and the Impact of the Korean Nuclear Issue

閻亢宗(Hang-tsung Yen)

《遠景基金會季刊》 20卷1期 (2019/01) Pp. 107-165

摘要

安全困境用於解釋缺乏互信與安全機制的國際體系，導致國家間的不確定性與相互防範，也用來描述各國相互疑懼下衍生的軍備競賽。朝核問題升高了東北亞的安全困境，北韓為維護其安全，發展出與俄羅斯及日本的互動策略，俄日兩國也利用北韓問題實現各自利益，但也面臨若干挑戰。目前能夠解決北韓問題的途徑都帶有風險，沒有一個百分百的解決方案，這使得朝鮮半島和東北亞的緊張情勢無法緩和，在不確定性升高和各國相互戒懼下，各國為求自保及追逐安全利益，紛紛增加軍備，進一步加深了東北亞的安全困境。

關鍵字

北韓問題 ； 川金會 ； 先軍政治 ； 平行發展 ； 安全困境

並列摘要

A security dilemma is used to explain the uncertainty and mutual defense caused by a lack of trust and security mechanisms in the international system, and also to describe the arms race derived from mutual suspicion among nations. The North Korean nuclear issue has heightened the security dilemma in Northeast Asia. To maintain its security, North Korea has developed an interactive strategy with Russia and Japan, while these two countries have also used the North Korean issue to realize their respective interests, despite facing several challenges. All available ways to solve the North Korean issues at the time are risky. There is no single solution that can completely solve the problem, making it impossible to reduce the tension between the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. With heightened uncertainty and mutual fear, nations have strengthened their military preparations in order to protect themselves and to pursue security interests, thereby further deepening the security dilemma in Northeast Asia.

並列關鍵字

The North Korea Issue ； Trump-Kim Meeting ； Songun/Army-First Policy ； Pyŏngjin/Parallel Development ； Security Dilemma

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