北韓戰爭邊緣策略及其對亞太安全之影響

North Korea's Brinkmanship and Its Implications to Asia-Pacific Security

田家綺(Jia-Qi Tian)

《國防雜誌》 28卷4期 (2013/07) Pp. 21-40

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2013.28(4).2

摘要

聯合國在北韓進行第三次核試後所採取的加強制裁與禁運措施，導致北韓的激烈反應。近期美韓舉行多次大規模聯合演習，北韓也展開大規模軍事動員。雙方劍拔弩張，戰爭危機似已迫在眉睫。然而以北韓現有力量，絕不足以與美韓聯軍對抗，因此大膽採取戰爭邊緣策略，應只是金正恩尋求鞏固權力與突破國際制裁的手段，國際社會如何採取明智的手段，儘速降低危機氛圍，使各方重回談判桌，將成為化解朝鮮半島戰爭風險，為長遠朝鮮無核化目標奠基的關鍵。

關鍵字

北韓 ； 戰爭邊緣策略 ； 加強制裁措施 ； 朝鮮核武危機

並列摘要

The UN Security Council imposed enhanced sanction and embargo measures against North Korea after its third nuclear test. This caused extreme reactions from North Korea. Facing U.S.-South Korea multiple joint military exercises, North Korea responded with massive military mobilization. A crisis of war appears imminent with such serious confrontation. Nonetheless, North Korea does not have sufficient capability to oppose U.S.-South Korea coalition. Therefore, Kim Jong-Un's bold brinkmanship measures seem to be designed to consolidate his internal political control and break through international sanctions. How the international community de-escalates this crisis with well-calculated efforts and returns involved parties to negotiation table will be a key to solve Korean Peninsula's war crisis and pave the way for long term de-nuclear objective.

並列關鍵字

North Korea ； Brinkmanship ； Enhanced Sanctions ； Korea Nuclear Crisis