美中貿易戰對美中臺關係發展之影響

美中關係對美中臺三角影響最大。又當前美中關係變化之關鍵變數在於雙邊自2017年以來展開的貿易戰，雙方關係可從「修昔底德陷阱」觀察。當確定美中關係走向變化時，兩岸「螺旋敵意陷阱」及臺美「同盟陷阱」亦將跟著變動。三組陷阱倘未謹慎處理，均可能導致戰爭。惟據本研究結論，當前美中貿易戰尚未演變為「修昔底德陷阱」，僅出現競爭關係升級，此將使兩岸「螺旋敵意陷阱」更難化解，而臺美發生「同盟陷阱」機率提高。

關鍵字

美中臺三邊關係；美中貿易戰；修昔底德陷阱；螺旋敵意陷阱；同盟陷阱

並列摘要

U.S.-China relations is the most important influence on U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle. Currently, the trend of US-China relations is influenced by the U.S.-China trade war from 2017. However, the trade war is just a symbol of competition. For the nature of US-China relations, we could use the so-called Thucydides's Trap as a framework. After the trend of U.S.-China relations are defined, we can more easily observe the influence of the ＂Spiral Model＂ on cross-Strait relations and the role of the ＂Alliance Trap＂ on Taiwan-U.S. relations. If there exists a bad situation of these three traps, it quite possibly could cause war. Nevertheless, based on the finding of this paper, the relations between the U.S. and China have not indulged in the Thucydides's Trap but they have become worse than before. This could make the cross-Strait relations harder to escape from the ＂Spiral Model＂ and make it more likely to cause an ＂Alliance Trap＂ between Taiwan and the U.S.

並列關鍵字

U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations ； U.S.-China Trade War ； Thucydides's Trap ； Spiral Model ； Alliance Trap

參考文獻

Kwan, Chi Hung, 2020/1. “The China-US Trade War: Deep-Rooted Causes, Shifting Focus and Uncertain Prospects,” Asia Economy Policy Review, Vol. 15, Issue 1, pp. 55-72, Wiley Online Library, .

吳玉山，1997。《抗衡或扈從：兩岸關係新詮》。臺北：正中書局。