美中貿易戰之趨勢及對臺灣投資與貿易結構之影響

The Development of the US-China Trade War and Its Implications on Taiwan's Trade and Investment Structure

李淳(Roy Chun Lee) ； 顏慧欣(Huai-shing Yen) ； 楊書菲(Shu-fei Yang)

《遠景基金會季刊》 22卷2期 (2021/04) Pp. 1-58

摘要

美中貿易開戰已逾三年，懲罰及報復關稅已涵蓋雙方多數產品。雙方談判協議雖已於2020年初簽署，但拜登新政府於2021年上任後不但維持關稅制裁，美國在科技領域對中國之限制管制及競爭也日趨嚴格與激烈。在此背景下，本文由新貿易理論探討了美國啟動貿易制裁之原因及後續可能發展，並指出中國策略性貿易政策之關鍵問題尚待解決。本文另分析貿易戰迄今所造成之貿易移轉現象對於美、中及臺灣之影響、臺商外資調整產業供應鏈結構之發展，提出臺灣產業可能的因應作為。

關鍵字

美中貿易戰 ； 新貿易理論 ； 策略性貿易政策 ； 貿易移轉 ； 供應鏈

並列摘要

The US-China trade war continued for over three years since 2018, with sanctions and retaliatory tariffs imposed by both sides covering a wide range of product categories. Although the US and China reached a First Phase Trade Deal in 2020, most tariffs have remained in place under the new Biden Administration after it took office in January 2021. There is also no sign of deescalation on US-China technology rivalry. In this context, this paper first explores the development and impact of the trade war from a New Trade Theory perspective, focusing on China's ＂Strategic Trade Policy＂ and the US's retaliation. This paper concludes that the outlook of the trade war under the new Biden Administration is not positive, as most of the issues that have risen in light of China's pursuance of its ＂Strategic Trade Policy＂ remain unresolved. Second, this paper discusses the implications relating to trade and investment structures and the subsequent supply chain re-configuration development, and offers some possible hedging strategies for Taiwan's businesses.

並列關鍵字

US-China Trade War ； New Trade Theory ； Strategic Trade Policy ； Trade Diversion ； Supply Chain

參考文獻

中華民國全國工業總會，2020。《美中貿易衝突對中國大陸臺商之影響及動向調查》。臺北：大陸委員會。

劉碧珍、陳添枝、翁永和，2005。《國際貿易理論與政策》。臺北：雙葉書廊。

陳添枝，2021。《美中貿易戰，戰什麼？大國崛起與制度之爭》。臺北：時報文化出版社。

2021/3/20。〈中美高層對話全文〉，《澎湃新聞網》，。

中華人民共和國商務部，2017/5/25。〈關於中美經貿關係的研究報告〉。《中華人民共和國商務部》，。