中共對菲律賓於南海主權爭議島礁對峙行動之模式分析

Pattern Analysis of the Sino-Philippine Confrontation in the Disputed Maritime Features in the South China Sea

陳育正(Yu-cheng Chen) ； 顧志文(Chih-wen Ku)

《遠景基金會季刊》 23卷2期 (2022/04) Pp. 57-113

摘要

本文透過檢視中菲雙方美濟礁、黃岩島與牛軛礁等事件後，歸納發現中共處理與菲國海上僵局時有以下步驟：第一，透過漁船取得數量優勢造成糾紛；第二，觀察菲國政府與國際社會對中共行為之抗議程度及態度；第三，若無嚴重抗議，中共即採取實質掌控該海域，甚至開始進行填海造陸與島礁軍事化工程。另外，本研究還發現牛軛礁事件，具有「占領重要戰略位置」、「強化主權主張及海上管轄能力」，以及「伺機形成有利態勢」等三項特點。

關鍵字

行政管轄 ； 九段線 ； 牛軛礁 ； 海上民兵 ； 主權主張

並列摘要

This article examines the incidents of Mischief Reef, Scarborough Reef and Whitsun Reef between China and the Philippines through the Analogy Method behind the Sino-Philippine Confrontation method. Research has established that China conducted the following steps with regards to its maritime confrontation with the Philippines: (1) gaining quantitative advantages through its fishing fleet to cause disputes; (2) observing the degree of reaction and attitude of the Philippine government and the international community; (3) if there were no significant protests from international community, China would begin to control the sea area and eventually conduct reclamation and militarization of maritime features. This article found the following intentions behind the Whitsun Reef incident: (1) occupation of an important strategic position; (2) strengthening sovereignty claims and maritime jurisdiction capabilities; (3) taking stock of the international communities' willingness to involve itself in this particular geopolitical situation.

並列關鍵字

Administrative Jurisdiction ； Nine-Dash Line ； Whitsun Reef ； Maritime Militia ； Sovereignty Claim

參考文獻

Permanent Court of Arbitration, 2016/7/12. “Press Release,” PCA-CPA, .

Permanent Court of Arbitration, 2016/7/12. “In the Matter of the South China Sea Arbitration,” PCA-CPA, .

Pompeo, Michael R., 2019/3/1. “Remarks with Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin, Jr. at a Press Availability,” U.S. Department of State, .

Political Science, 2018/11/21. “Methodology of Political Science,” Political Science, .

Poling, Gregory & Zack Cooper, 2016/3/30. “Developing a Scarborough Contingency Plan,” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS, .