探討性別、年齡、水上活動類型與溺水結果之關係－對數線性模式之應用

Influences of Sex, Age, and Water Activities upon Accidental Drowning - Application of Log-Linear Model to Model Fitting

王國川(Kuo-Chang Wang)

《醫護科技學刊》 3卷2期 (2001/04) Pp. 166-186

https://doi.org/10.6563/TJHS.2001.3(2).4

摘要

意外淹死及溺水不僅是國內非常重要的事故傷害之一，而且也是青少年第二主要的死亡原因。瞭解溺水發生之影響因素，是防範民眾及青少年溺水之首要工作。雖然溺水發生的過程相當複雜又不容易作回溯，但是當事人本身所擁有的基本特性，卻可以代表事件發生之重要指標。因此，探討性別、年齡、水上活動類型與溺水結果之關係，就成為了本研究之主要目的。本研究係應用對數線性模式，建構這四者彼此之間的最佳關係模式及其轉換後之logit模式。分析的對象則是民國八十五年一月一日起至民國八十七年十二月三十一日為止，臺灣地區各縣市消防局與其所屬各鄉鎮市消防隊、分隊、小隊所提報之溺水個案。結果發現：性別、年齡與水上活動類型，都是影響溺水結果不同之重要變項。再者，性別與年齡形成交互作用效果，也會影響溺水結果的不同。其他的詳細結果如下：在性別上，男性發生溺斃之機會比女性高；在年齡上，9 歲以下年齡組發生溺斃之機會比任何其他組來得低，而10-14 歲年齡組則發生溺斃之機會比任何其他組來得高；在水上活動類型上，失足落水比戲水、游泳、釣魚發生溺斃之機會來得高，而戲水又比游泳、釣魚發生溺斃之機會來得高；對於性別與年齡之交互作用部分，在9 歲以下之年齡組，男性發生溺斃之機會比女性來得低，而在15-19 歲之年齡組，男性發生溺斃之機會，則比女性來得高。

關鍵字

意外淹死及溺水 ； 性別 ； 年齡 ； 水上活動類型 ； 對數線性模式

並列摘要

Accidental drowning is a very important issue of unintentional death in Taiwan, as it is the second most common cause of unintentional death for adolescents. Preventing the public, and especially adolescents, from drowning requires knowledge of the causes of drowning. The process of drowning is very complicated, and it is difficult to look back; however, the characteristics of the drowning victims indicate which determinant factors are involved. Hence, this study mainly aims to explore the relationships among sex, age, water activities, and drowning in order to understand the influences of accidental drowning. The modified model selection strategies were employed to search for the best competitive log-linear model and the logit model among the above four variables. The subjects were the drownings and near drownings from 1996 to 1998 in Taiwan. The findings revealed that sex, age, and water activities had significant influences on accidental drowning, and sex and age could indirectly affect accidental drowning through water activities. In addition, sex and age could interact with accidental drowning. The details were described. Males suffered more drownings than females. The age groups under nine experienced fewer drownings than the other age groups. The age groups between ten and fourteen suffered more drownings than the others. Those falling into water experienced more drownings than those playing in water, swimming, and fishing, and those playing in water suffered more drownings than those swimming and fishing. The males among the age groups under nine had fewer drownings than the females. The males among the age groups between fifteen and nineteen had more drownings than the females.

並列關鍵字

accidental drowning ； sex ； age ； water activities ； log-linear models