台灣地區神經專科醫師人力推估

本研究旨在利用各種推估模式，預測民國100年及110年神經專科醫師人力的供給及需求量。研究方法係利用行政院衛生署所提供88年12月及90年5月之醫事人力及醫療機構資料檔、中央健保局88年度之住院醫療費用清單明細檔、結合經建會人口統計資料，及相關研究結果，運用各種推估模式（供給趨勢法、各國基準法、專科醫師佔率法、線性迴歸法、住院需求推估法、盛行率推估法）預測。研究結果發現：從供給面推估民國100年台灣神經專科醫師人力為702位，110年為866位。從不同模式推估台灣神經專科醫師需求，發現除了美國為基準的推估及以線性迴歸法的推估是供給不足外，大部分的推估結果都呈現神經專科醫師供給過剩。本研究發展的供需模式可作為評估與呈現專科醫師人力政策的重要工具，大部分推估模式顯示未來神經專科醫師供給可能過剩，建議衛生署及台灣神經學學會對未來神經專科醫師人才的養成，在供給量方面應開始加以節制，以免供給過多。

關鍵字

神經專科；醫師人力；供給；需求

並列摘要

This study attempts to forecast neurologist supply and demand Taiwan for 2011 and 2021. Health workforce and medical institution data for Dec. 1999 and May 2001 were collected from the Department of Health (DOH) and linked with hospital claims data from the National Health Insurance (NHI) and population data obtained from the Economical Foundation Committee, Executive Yuan. Various estimation models were applied to forecast and shape neurologist supply and demand. The supply of neurologists in Taiwan was estimated at 702 for 2011 and 866 for 2021. Based on different estimation models, supply in 2011 and 2021 of neurologists in Taiwan was exceeded demand, except when applying the American-based model and the linear trend model. The analytical methods presented in this study are effective for evaluating and developing health manpower policy. Analytical results showed that the number of neurologists exceed future demand. We suggest that DOH and Taiwan Neurological Society control the supply of neurological workforce to avoid oversupply.