本文乃針對規劃中之三種長期照顧財務制度-擴大健保給付制、獨立社會保險制、與稅收制,進行以民眾觀點爲主之政策預評估,以瞭解民眾對於長期照顧財務制度的選擇及影響選擇的重要因素。本研究主要以研究者自行設計之問卷,隨機抽樣20歲以上台灣地區民眾進行電話訪問,計成功訪問1,070位受訪者。根據民調結果,民眾對於長期照顧的知能有限,但對於長期照顧的需求有成長趨勢。財務制度選擇方面,贊成擴大健保給付制或獨立社會保險制者,多於不贊成者;相對地,不贊成稅收制者多於贊成者。若以三種制度之贊成與否做爲被解釋變項,進行個人特質、長照知能、長照需求、付費意願、與政策學習等解釋變項之邏輯迴歸分析,結果發現對於健保滿意與否爲最顯著的影響因素,此亦印證政策學習觀點的重要性。
This study intends to pre-evaluate, from the viewpoint of the general public, the political feasibility of three financing schemes for the prospective Long-Term Care (LTC) Program in Taiwan and to explore the determinants of program choice. It is based on a telephone survey this author conducted with 1,070 respondents randomly sampled from the population aged 20 and above. According to the survey, most people have only limited knowledge about the LTC program; despite that the needs for long-term care are expected to grow in the near future. As for the choice of the LTC financing schemes, more people are for extending the National Health Insurance (NHI) program to cover the LTC services or establishing an independent LTC social insurance program. By contrast, the proposal for financing the LTC through tax is least favored by the people. Further analysis, using logistic regression model, shows that the degree of satisfaction with the NHI program is the most significant factor determining the choice of the LTC financing scheme. The finding bears on the significance of the policy learning perspective.