歐巴馬弱川普強？美國外交政策之循環效應

Weak Obama and Tougher Trump? The Cycle Effect of American Foreign Policy

賴文儀(Mark Wenyi Lai)

《逢甲人文社會學報》 39期 (2019/12) Pp. 53-77

摘要

本文處理的主要研究問題為，美國在面對國際安全議題，是否有一收（消極）一放（積極）的循環效應？這個一收一放的週期為多久？本文根據數據資料進行分析並且追溯二十世紀美國歷史，發現循環週期約略為二十年上下。一戰積極、戰後消極、二戰冷戰積極、低蕩限武消極、冷戰勝利積極；911恐怖攻擊開啟二十一世紀，延長了雷根（Ronald Reagan）布希（George H.W. Bush）柯林頓的積極年代。由此，本文申論，歐巴馬代表了新的二十年循環開始，目前當政的川普將會延續美國消極外交政策。

關鍵字

美國外交政策 ； 歐巴馬 ； 川普 ； 外交政策 ； 軍事支出

並列摘要

Observers have vivid and plural assessment to the foreign policy agenda in the eight years of Barack Obama's Presidency of the United States. This research argued that the passive nature of Obama Administration's way of dealing with international security issues is the reasonable phenomenon under the long-term American foreign policy cycle. The major research question: is there a passive/aggressive cycle when the US deals with international security issues? How long is the period of this cycle? Is it true that Bill Clinton passive, George W. Bush aggressive, and Obama passive? Does this mean Donald Trump, the President elected in 2016 will start a more aggressive foreign policy? This research adopted both quantitative and qualitative methods. The author examined previous American history and provided the analysis. The foreign policy cycle took roughly around twenty years. US foreign policy was aggressive from 1900-1920 (World War I), passive from 1920-1940 (After WWI), aggressive from 1940-1960 (World War II and the Cold War), passive from 1960-1980 (Vietnam War and Détente during the Cold War), and aggressive from 1980-2000 (Victory of the Cold War). The 911 terrorist attack in 2001 toward American homeland gave a massive impact to the country and prolonged the aggressive foreign policy period of the Reagan/Bush senior/Clinton administration. Accordingly, this research argued that Obama was the beginning of the twenty-years bipartisan passive foreign policy. Thus, incumbent President Trump continued this passive nature of foreign policy.

並列關鍵字

American foreign policy ； Obama ； Trump ； Foreign policy ； Military Expenditure

參考文獻

張登及，〈『再平衡』對美中關係之影響：一個理論與政策的分析〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第十四卷第二期（2013 年 4 月），頁 53-98。

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