高雄市流浪犬及捕捉數目之動態平衡：利用簡單指數模型進行政策之選擇

The Dynamic Relationship between the Size of Stray Dog Population and the Number of Captured Dogs in Kaohsiung City: A Policy Selection Progress Based on a Simple Exponential Model

賴治民(Jyhmirn Lai) ； 吳宗穆(Tzong-Mu Wu) ； 張曉欽(Siao-Cin Jhang)

《臺灣獸醫學雜誌》 37卷4期 (2011/12) Pp. 270-277

https://doi.org/10.7009/TVJ.201112.0039

摘要

流浪犬過多常造成高雄市居民的困擾。人道處理與捕捉、絕育及鼓勵認養為高雄市處理流浪犬的主要方式。基本上，流浪犬的族群大小和成長速率、環境因子及移除率有關。而移除率則主要與捕捉數目有關。由於世運大會的舉行，各級民意代表均建議應該增加捕捉流浪犬的力道。但同時也必須考慮到有限的人力、經費及動物福利。本研究利用簡單指數模型建構合宜的數學模型，以找出捕捉流浪犬及動物福利中的平衡點。本模型使用2004年及2005年間流浪犬捕捉數及流浪犬的總數目來評估持續捕捉之後的流浪犬數目變化。結果指出，除非在短時間捕捉所有犬隻，否則流浪犬的數目雖會暫時下降，最終仍會達到穩定。因此，捕捉數目僅需反應市民所需即可。

關鍵字

捕捉數 ； 高雄市 ； 流浪犬 ； 族群

並列摘要

Stray dog overpopulation has always been a major disturbance for citizens in Kaohsiung City. Euthanasia and capture, neuter and rehoming programs are the main methods used by the council. The size of stray dog population is affected by the successful growth rate and the death rate, while the death rate is related to the number of stray dogs captured in the city. As Kaohsiung City was scheduled to host the World Games, the city assembly had suggested that the city needed to reinforce its stray dog control program. However, considering the councils limited man-power and budget, as well as the issue of animal welfare, it is important to find the balance between capturing dogs and their welfare. A mathematic model based on a simple exponential model was developed. The number of stray dogs captured in 2004 and 2005 and the population of stray dogs recorded in 2005s census were adopted to evaluate the dynamic change of the stray dog population after continuous dog capturing. The results showed that unless all stray dogs were removed in a very short time, their number would reduce at first before eventually settled on a certain number. Thus, it was not practical and necessary to capture more dogs than just responding to citizens' calls.

並列關鍵字

capturing number ； Kaohsiung City ； population ； stray dogs