On the Effectiveness of Announcement Effect under Uncompensated Devaluation

非補償貶值宣示效果之有效性

林宏濱

《亞太經濟管理評論》 16卷2期 (2013/03) Pp. 61-83

摘要

本文以最適控制法來研究如果消費者在沒有被補償通貨膨脹稅之下，政府的宣示效果對貶值以及國際收支有何效果。不同於Calvo（1981）的模型假定，本研究以實質貨幣餘額對貶值的比率大小在消費者沒有被補償通貨膨脹稅之下輔以動態分析，探討貶值是否真會使國際收支的經常帳惡化。研究結論顯示，第一是若貶值幅度大於實質貨幣餘額，則我們發現在動態分析下貨幣貶值將造成國際收支的經常帳惡化，第二是若政府的貶值宣示效果是恆久性並被預料到的話，則貶值對經常帳不會有影響，意即政府的宣示效果將失效。

關鍵字

宣示效果 ； 經常帳 ； 貶值 ； 非補償

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the consequences of the announcement effect on currency devaluation when consumers are lump-sum uncompensated. It is shown that the magnitude of the currency devaluation with respect to real money balance does matter in the uncompensated case (a case not considered in Calvo (1981)) and leads to different results on the current account. Currency devaluation will lead to deterioration in the current account if the effect of devaluation is greater than real money balance. In this case, attempts by government to improve its current account in the long-run by an anticipated permanent currency-devaluation policy will be in vain.

並列關鍵字

Announcement Effect ； Current Account ； Devaluation ； Lump-sum Uncompensated

參考文獻

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