認知偏誤影響廠商資訊專案續擴行為之研究

The Influence of Cognitive Biases on Escalation Behavior in Information Technology Projects

林美蘭(Mei-Lan Lin) ； 余泰魁(Tai-Kuei Yu) ； 趙正敏(Cheng-Min Chao)

《管理研究學報》 16卷1期 (2016/06) Pp. 33-60

https://doi.org/10.6626/MR.2016.16(1).02

摘要

企業希望資訊科技的導入帶來競爭優勢，但對資訊投資專案經費所費不貲與專案時程的延宕卻心痛不已，資訊專案的財務與人力持續投資，形成續擴行為更期望資訊專案的完成，能一舉回收相關軟硬體的投資，因而廠商的資訊專案續擴行為議題更值得進行研究。本研究以Kahneman & Tversky (1979)的展望理論(prospect theory)為基礎加以修定，並將決策者的心理「認知偏誤」視為調節變項納入考量，建構一系列資訊專案投資決策續擴行為實驗設計。本研究主要針對認知判斷偏誤的情境予以分開設計，聘請專家對實驗情境進行效度檢核，進行選擇性知覺、錯覺控制與內在申辯等認知偏誤構念驗證調節變數的作用，以南部學校的高階主管或在職碩專班學生為實驗對象。研究結果發現，參考基點與專案績效表現對承諾續擴具有明顯之交互效果，專案表現水準和錯覺控制對資訊專案相對表現具有顯著的交互效果，資訊專案平均表現與情境變異組合對資訊專案信心水準也具顯著之交互效果。管理者過去在資訊專案的成功經驗，將有助於資訊專案導向停止續擴或成功的影響。最後根據實證結果提出理論與實務意涵，並建議未來研究方向。

關鍵字

續擴行為 ； 展望理論 ； 認知偏誤

並列摘要

Most entrepreneurs wish to develop their competitive advantage by adopting information technology project, entrepreneurs expect positive outcome from such project regarding both software and hardware. However, the great amount of money required for an information project makes them hesitate. Therefore, the escalation behavior of enterprises' adoption of information projects has become important. Based on the prospect theory proposed by Kahnenan & Tversky (1979), this study included the ＂cognitive biases＂ of decision makers as a moderator variable, and constituted a complete escalation behavior mode of investment decisions that enterprises make for information projects. The study verified related assumptions by conducting experiments with EMBA and Program MBA students. The results fund that reference point and information project performance has significant interaction effect on escalation behavior. Information project performance and illusion control has significant interaction effect on information project performance has significant interaction effect on information project relative performance. Information project performance and situation complex set has significant interaction effect on information project performance confidence level. The results may provide solid proofs concerning the escalation behavior as well as theoretical patterns of information projects. Managers' successful experience in the past can positively influence the success of information projects. Researchers finally suggest some implications for theoretical and practice, and the suggestions for futures studies.

並列關鍵字

Escalation behavior ； Prospect theory ； Cognitive biases

參考文獻

林家五、鄭伯壎、蔡明宏(2000)。決策嵌陷的成因分析。管理學報。17(3)，515-546。

林舒柔、湯明哲(2007)。企業創業投資中的承諾續擴：認知偏誤觀點。臺大管理論叢。18(1)，55-79。

邱炳乾(2006)。預算目標達成對風險投資的影響：展望理論與過去績效歸因的探討。管理與系統。13(1)，77-97。

Aegerter Alvarez, J. F.,Pustina, A.,Hällgren, M.(1996).Escalating commitment in the death zone: New insights from the 1996 Mount Everest disaster.International Journal of Project Management.29(8),971-985.

Biyalogorsky, E.,Boulding, W.,Staelin, R.(2006).Stuck in the past: Why managers persist with new product failures.Journal of Marketing.70(2),108-121.