Age-Adjusted US Cancer Death Rate Predictions

The likelihood of developing cancer during one's lifetime is approximately one in two for men and one in three for women in the United States. Cancer is the second-leading cause of death and accounts for one in every four deaths. Evidence-based policy planning and decision making by cancer researchers and public health administrators are best accomplished with up-to-date age-adjusted site-specific cancer death rates. Because of the 3-year lag in reporting, forecasting methodology is employed here to estimate the current year's rates based on complete observed death data up through three years prior to the current year. The authors expand the State Space Model (SSM) statistical methodology currently in use by the American Cancer Society (ACS) to predict age-adjusted cancer death rates for the current year. These predictions are compared with those from the previous Proc Forecast ACS method and results suggest the expanded SSM performs well.

並列關鍵字

Age-adjusted mortality rate ； local quadratic model ； state space model

被引用紀錄

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林貞伶（2015）。以最佳獲利觀點探討需求與存貨相關模式〔碩士論文，中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500650

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國際替代計量

Age-Adjusted US Cancer Death Rate Predictions

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