台北港貨櫃碼頭BOT計畫投資人資本額規範-VaR及Monte Carlo模式之應用

本研究利用風險值的概念以補強政府忽略風險資本重要性的缺口。在台北港貨櫃儲運中心BOT投資計畫中爲案例的實證分析中可知，原計畫投資申請人擬籌募的資本額爲新台幣20億元，而透過盈餘風險值的計算，在50年的與建與營運期間內及95%的信賴水準條件下，此一計畫應有最低的資本額爲7.9億元，該計畫書在風險資本的安排上，符合Basle Committee(1998)公佈之法定風險資定的要求。本研究成果將有助於政府部門更週延地評估所欲推動BOT計畫的風險及其可行性，進而選出BOT計畫最後的得標人。

關鍵字

興建營運移轉；風險矩陣；風險值；盈餘風險值；市場風險資本

並列摘要

The selected final corporation from which Conceding Authority choose to execute a BOT project is a determinant factor that effects whether the project will success or not. Therefore, this study is aiming at introducing concept of market risk capital to set a standard appraisal for Government to follow and apply in dealing with BOT projects financial planning in the future. To obtain the goal, we apply Basle Committee's (1998) Internal Models Approach-Value at Risk (VaR), developed to solve a series of financial crises events in first place but now extended and proven useful and manifest means to forecast the range of risks in advance, meanwhile combine with J.P Morgen Bank's (1999) Corporate Metrics model, expanded on basis of VaR and used for assessing on company's Earning at Risk (EaR), to explore the separate minimum required capital of all BOT projects as to distinguish the best applicant from others.