中國在氣候變遷上的戰略與選擇

China's Strategy Adoption in Climate Change

劉兆隆(Chao-Lung Liu)

《全球政治評論》 37期 (2012/01) Pp. 89-116

https://doi.org/10.29899/JRM.201201.0006

摘要

氣候變遷是目前最重要的政治與經濟議題，在京都議定書簽訂後，各國莫不致力以節能減碳為目標，以避免國際制裁。但中國由於是開發中國家，同時又有經濟發展與高度倚賴石化燃料的困境，因此如何在不妨礙經濟發展的前提下，又能夠達到節能減碳的目標，便成為他們的戰略思考與選擇。初步研究發現中國的作法主要有二：一是採取觀望的態度，對於減碳的作法停留在只有形式卻無實質的階段；二是提出亮麗的政策口號。作者認為在這些政策口號與作法的背後，需要龐大的資金挹助。目前中國雖然具有高度經濟成長，但是一旦具體落實這些措施必然遲滯經濟成長與發展。再加上中國各地方各自為政，中央措施如何落實到地方更是困難。由於歐美各國在相關議題上仍有諸多歧見，因此作者認為中國目前的戰略選擇是以拖待變，用敷衍的態度與漂亮的口號回應國際壓力。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 碳交易 ； 經濟發展 ； 中國

並列摘要

Climate change is among the most significant subjects of debate in politics and economics. To avoid the imposition of international sanctions, the countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol have been devoted to energy saving and carbon reduction (ESCR). China as a developing country highly dependent on fossil fuels, however, is at crossroads when attempting to give equal consideration to ESCR and economic development. My research tentatively finds that China is adopting two major strategies: first, waiting and seeing without taking essential steps and second, proposing specious slogans for which a great deal of money has been invested. Despite its high economic growth, China is very likely to suffer slow economic progress if materializing those essential steps, which appear impractical with the fact that they will not necessarily be taken into serious consideration by local governments. Because the ideas of the U.S. and European countries still have varied in related issues, my conclusion tends to be that China's current strategy in response to international pressure is to remain vaguely inactive and see what is going to happen while taking a perfunctory attitude with specious slogans.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Carbon Trading ； Economic Development ； China