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全球結構變遷下日本對中國戰略之調適

Transformation of Global Structure and the Emerging of Japan's New China Policy

摘要


隨著近年來中國崛起對美國霸權地位之潛在威脅愈發明顯,許多國家愈來愈關切其崛起的後續發展、中美出現「權力轉移」的可能性、中國是否將改變原先傾向「維持現狀」之政策路徑,以及它對區域鄰國可能帶來之影響。對此,不僅配合美國全球戰略與遏制中國崛起,乃日本近期在此一雙邊同盟架構中的主要任務,一方面中國愈發明顯地成為日本的戰略假想敵,值得注意的是,日本安倍政府雖不斷在官方文書中暗示中國作為其主要安全威脅來源,且2014年以來持續擴張防衛預算,但於此同時,自2014年APEC峰會以來,日本也不斷嘗試尋求與北京「破冰」的可能,尤其在川普上台後,美國方面浮現之戰略不確定性,或許也讓日本可能採取某種戰略調適來因應可能出現之變數。

並列摘要


With the potential challenge of China's rise in recent years against America's hegemonic status becoming ever clear, many countries are becoming ever attentive on the successive development of the rise, the possibility of power transition between China and the US, and whether China will shift away from its former policy path of maintain the status quo. Correspondingly, for Japan, not only is cooperation with US global strategy in tying down China's rise the main task of the US-Japan alliance, China in itself has developed into an imagined strategic foe. It is worth pointing out that even though the Shinzo Abe administration has repeatedly hinted in official documents at China being the main security challenge for Japan while continuing to increase its defense budget since 2014, Japan has also been in a continuous search for opportunities to break the ice with China. In particular, following the entry into office of Donald Trump, the emergence of strategic uncertainties in Washington presents Japan with policy space to make strategic adjustments to respond to new variables.

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