中共軍事戰略轉變之意涵：「巴特雷特模式」分析

The Meaning of Change of PRC's Military Strategy: Bartlett Model Analysis

蘇長春

《國防雜誌》 26卷1期 (2011/02) Pp. 116-134

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2011.26(1).8

摘要

一、毛澤東軍事思維一直主導著中共軍事戰略，然懲越戰爭與波灣戰爭凸顯其國防現代化不足，使軍事戰略內涵發生轉變，反應在兵力規劃上，解放軍邁入現代化，質量提升。二、中共軍事欠透明，任何軍事轉變與作為，都將引起周邊國家關注，而透過對中共軍事戰略的研究，將有助了解中共軍事思維，進而保障國家安全。三、巴特雷特模式可解釋軍事戰略形成過程，不但可探討各種實質爭議，並能促進國安決策下達。另許多關鍵變因，本模型也披露其交互作用，從而提出戰略發展的周延途徑。

關鍵字

軍事戰略 ； 人民戰爭 ； 積極防禦 ； 巴特雷特模式

並列摘要

1. The military thoughts Mao Tse-tung have been leading PRC's military strategy. However, the Sino-Vietnam War-1979 and the two Gulf Wars have apparently showed the insufficiency of modernization of it's national defense, and result in the change of the meaning of it's military strategy, which reflects in force planning and help to make People's Liberation Army become a modernized force gradually, increasing the quality and quantity.2. PRC belongs to the autocracy of communist system. Because of it's lack of transparency of military affairs, any change in behavior of its military will definitely draw the attention of surrounding nations. By studing PRC's military strategy, it helps us to better understand the mindset behind PRC' military decision making, and more importantly, it enables us to acguire indemnifications for our national security.3. The Bartlett Model can precisely explain the process in forming military strategies. Not only can it deal with a variety of substantial controversies, but also benefit the issuing of the policies telated with national security. Moreover, for many key variables, this model uncovers the interaction between each component and further represent a meticulous way of developing military strategies.

並列關鍵字

Military strategy ； People's war ； Active defense ； Bartlett model