北韓未來政權繼承問題對中共的挑戰

China's Upcoming Challenges in North Korea's Power Transition Problems

盧文豪(Wen-Hau Lu)

《國防雜誌》 26卷5期 (2011/10) Pp. 48-61

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2011.26(5).4

摘要

北韓領導人金正日在建國六十週年慶祝大會中缺席後，多方來自媒體有關金正日可能中風的謠言甚囂塵上，北韓政權的接班問題對東北亞區域穩定議題的討論快速浮上檯面。如果平壤政權無法平順的轉移，代表北韓可能將陷入內亂，甚至面臨崩解，中共面對與北韓邊界穩定的問題及東北亞區域重新劃分的勢力將產生極大的挑戰。本篇將探討北韓政權移轉對自韓戰以來長期支持平壤政權的中共可能產生的問題，並深入探究中共因應這些問題可能採取的應變措施。

關鍵字

北韓政權轉移 ； 中共北韓政策 ； 中共面臨的挑戰 ； 金正日的接班人

並列摘要

The absense of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-Il's in the 60th anniversary ceremony of North Korea caused a significant amount of rumors from media about his possible stroke. The discussions about on the Northeast Asia's stability the impact of North Korean's power transition quickly surfaced. If Pyongyang fails to transfer the power smoothly, North Korea will fall into a civil war, even a collapse. China will face tremendous challenges on border instability and new power distribution in Northeast Asia. This paper will analyze the influence of North Korea's power transition on China which has been supporting yongyang since the Korean War and discuss possible actions that China would take.

並列關鍵字

North Korea's power transition ； China's North Korea policy ； China's upcoming challenges ； Kim Jong Il's successor