中共對臺軍事武力發展對我防衛作戰之影響

The Impacts of the Development of PLA on the Defensive Operations of ROC

呂兆祥(Chao-Hsiang Lu)

《國防雜誌》 30卷4期 (2015/07) Pp. 67-95

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2015.30(4).4

摘要

本研究旨在探討中共對臺軍事武力發展現況對我防衛作戰之影響，藉分析中共對臺軍事武力發展與我國軍事戰略的官方及學者之論述與談話等相關文獻，以個案研究法進行研究。共軍在國防預算充分支持下，正逐年實現軍力現代化目標，其「攻臺戰役」的戰略構想，主要藉由提升兵力投射的距離與精準打擊武器的精度，除對我產生戰略威懾效益，亦可藉以在作戰初期癱瘓我指管系統，封鎖海、空交通線，達成「阻美、奪臺」之戰略目的。我國在中共軍事力量快速擴張之威脅下，應善用有限國防資源，積極研發「創新／不對稱」武力，並有效提升三軍聯戰效能，使其犯臺戰爭成本與風險增加，降低其武力犯臺意圖，達成「防衛固守、有效嚇阻」戰略，確保國家安全。

關鍵字

軍事發展 ； 軍事戰略 ； 防衛作戰 ； 國家安全

並列摘要

This study explores how current military development in the People's Republic of China (PRC) may impact on the defensive operations of the Republic of China (ROC). It analyzes PRC's military build-up and the ROC's military strategy through official discourses and academic literature, and case study is adopted as research method. With ample support of annual defense budget, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has gradually realized its objective of military modernization. The strategic thinking of ＂seizing Taiwan＂ is to be achieved by increasing the distance of power projection and enhancing the accuracy of its precision-guided weapon, which will enhance the effect of strategic deterrence on the ROC. This strategy also seeks to paralyze the ROC command and control systems and block the sea and air lines of communication in the early stage of the attack, thereby achieving the goal of ＂deterring the United States and seizing Taiwan.＂ Under the threat of rapid PRC military expansion, it is suggested that the ROC should make good use of its limited defense resources by actively developing an ＂innovative/ asymmetry＂ force and capability and improving the effectiveness of joint operations among the army, navy and air force. Owing to the increasing costs and risks of military invasion, the PRC's willingness to attack Taiwan can thus be significantly lowered. To this end, the ROC strategy of ＂resolute defense and effective deterrence＂ will be realized, and the ROC national security can be ensured.

並列關鍵字

Military Development ； Military Strategy ； Defensive Operations ； National Security