習近平主政後中共對臺政策之研究

China's Policy to Taiwan after Xi Jinping's Inauguration

古晏豪(Yen-Hao Ko)

《國防雜誌》 30卷5期 (2015/10) Pp. 49-76

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2015.30(5).3

摘要

兩岸自1949年以來，隔海對峙已超過半世紀。期間中共對我文攻武嚇不斷，亦未曾放棄武力犯臺。1996年我國首度民選總統，中共公然演習，飛彈試射到臺灣南北海域；2000年大選，朱鎔基在記者會的「臺獨就是戰爭」談話；到了2005年胡錦濤簽署《反分裂國家法》嚇阻陳總統製造一中一臺。習近平主政後，在2015年「兩會」對臺工作中強調，「基礎不牢，地動山搖」。如此「反臺獨」強硬性的談話，被視為針對臺灣總統大選。顯見在歷經幾次教訓後，中共對臺政策的改變，亦可從中發現端倪。

關鍵字

兩會 ； 對臺政策 ； 一國兩制 ； 九二共識

並列摘要

The political entities on either side of the Taiwan Strait has been confronting with each other over half a century since 1949. During this period, PRC keeps combining hard tactics with soft ones and never renounces the use of force over Taiwan. The PRC publicly conducted a military exercise during Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996. China also launched missiles to northern and southern waters of Taiwan. During the campaign of Taiwan's second presidential election in 2000, Chinese premier Zhu Rongji declared that ＂Taiwan Independence will lead to war.＂ in a press conference. Few years later, Hu Jintao signed the ＂anti-secession law＂ in 2005 and attempted to prevent President Chen Shui-bian to be re-elected. After Xi Jinping's inauguration, during the 2015 ＂NPC & CPPCC＂ for Taiwan Affairs, he emphasized that ＂the cross-strait relations will be shaky if foundation is not laid firmly＂. This declaration regarding ＂Anit- Taiwan Independence＂ is interpreted as aiming at Taiwan's presidential election in 2016. Obviously, it can be founded that China has revised its Taiwan policy based on the lessons it learned from history.

並列關鍵字

NPC & CPPCC ； China's Taiwan Policy ； one state ； two systems ； the 92 Consensus