扈從或抗衡：越南的南海避險策略

Bandwagoning or Balancing: Vietnam's Hedging Strategy in South China Sea

宋蔚泰(Wei-Tai Sung)

《國防雜誌》 33卷1期 (2018/03) Pp. 69-100

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.201803_33(1).0004

摘要

新古典現實主義中，強調弱國面對強權之生存策略，通常有「扈從」、「抗衡」或「避險」策略可選擇，改革後的越南，由於整體國力增強，逐漸被國際重視，成為美國等列強國家拉攏，聯合對抗中共的對象。在南海問題上，越南面對同為社會主義制度的中共，在不願走回歷史上藩屬的「扈從」與領土爭議衝突的「抗衡」兩極，其整體外交策略必定在「避險」策略中游移，藉由「次光譜」中「有限扈從」、「有限交往」、「經濟實用」、「優勢拒止」與「間接抗衡」等策略的交替運用，企圖在中共與國際強權利益周旋中，以坐收漁翁之利，反觀美國基於全球戰略，勢必在可控制範圍下持續操作南海爭議，以增加美國介入地區必要性與正當性，持續提供越南在「避險」策略上的選擇與操作的彈性。

關鍵字

中越南海爭議 ； 避險策略 ； 經濟實用 ； 優勢拒止

並列摘要

In Neoclassical Realism, small powers survive in the international system via bandwagoning, balancing, and hedging. For example, since economic reforms were initiated, thriving Vietnam has become an appealing partner to the United States when facing the same regional opponent-PRC. Regarding the territorial dispute in the South China Sea, Vietnam chooses ＂hedging＂ rather than bandwagoning or balancing as its strategy of foreign policy. In this paper, a sub-spectrum of hedging and categorize five different policies under this sub-spectrum, indirect balancing, dominance denial, economic pragmatism, binding engagement, and limited bandwagoning is established. In addition to Vietnam's economic and military power, this paper also identifies that the attitude of the dominant power outside the region, the United States, could change Vietnam's position in the sub-spectrum. Finally, it is argued that Vietnam tends to be in a calculated position in the sub-spectrum in order to manage the difficult territorial dispute in the South China Sea.

並列關鍵字

PRC-Vietnam Disputes ； Hedge ； Economic Pragmatism ； Dominance Denial