互惠或占領？中共「一帶一路」倡議在中亞地區發展布局

Reciprocity or Occupation? the CCP's ＂One Belt and One Road Initiative＂ for its Development in Central Asia

簡斌虔(Bin-Cian Jian) ； 林立偉(Li-Wei Lin)

《國防雜誌》 34卷3期 (2019/09) Pp. 61-88

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.201909_34(3).0004

摘要

習近平2013年提出「一帶一路」倡議的全球佈局經濟發展概念，積極向沿線國家推動與擴展。其中「絲綢之路經濟帶」係從中國出發，貫穿歐亞大陸，以歐洲為終點。關鍵樞紐即為經濟帶上的中亞五國包含：哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、烏茲別克、塔吉克及土庫曼等國家的陸地與水域為總範疇，該地區也是過去古絲路中國通往歐洲主要貿易線的「心臟地帶」。學界對於中共「一帶一路」倡議的相關研究，多與地緣政治聯結探討。「古典地緣政治」理論主要以政治與軍事作為手段，以征服與占領作為最後目標；而「新古典地緣政治」理論，則在1980年代逐漸受到學者關注而興起，重新賦予變遷的文化、社會、經濟及政治等因素，延伸地緣因素在國際關係的戰略價值，進一步探索地理空間外的實質影響。本文以「新古典地緣政治」理論觀點，分析中共「一帶一路」倡議在中亞地區發展的戰略意涵（包括地緣、經濟、安全、社會文化與傳播等層面因素），檢視其與中亞地區國家的互動關係，進而探究中共「一帶一路」倡議對中亞地區發展是彼此互惠或是另類占領？最後，據以詮釋中共「一帶一路」全球戰略佈局的意圖。

關鍵字

「一帶一路」倡議 ； 中亞地區 ； 地緣政治 ； 新古典地緣政治

並列摘要

In 2013, Xi, Jinping proposed the concept of ＂One Belt, One Road Initiative＂ to promote economic development through construction together and sharing business model. Among them, the main hub for the ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂ are of five Central Asian countries, including: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. This area is also a main trade route for the ancient Chinese Silk Road to Europe. The academic circles' research on the ＂One Belt, One Road Initiative＂ of CCP is mostly linked to geopolitics acdemia. In 1980s, scholars proposed ＂Neoclassical Geopolitics＂ theory and re-granted the culture and society of change. Factors such as economics and politics extend the strategic value of geopolitical factors to international relations and further explore the effects outside geospatial. This article will use the ＂New Classical Geopolitics＂ theory to analyze strategic significance of the ＂One Belt and One Road,＂ explore the interaction between the CCP and Asian countries, and then investigate whether the development of the ＂One Belt, One Road initiative＂ in region of Central Asia is a mutually reciprocity or occupation? Finally, it offers an interpretation to explain the CCP's ＂One Belt, One Road Initiative＂ global strategic layout.

並列關鍵字

＂One Belt, One Road Initiative＂ ； Central Asia ； Geopolitics ； Neoclassical Geopolitics