2022年俄烏戰爭源起、戰略與對我國之啟示

2022年俄烏戰爭發生原因不但複雜，交戰過程更因大國採除直接參戰以外的各種型式介入，致未能產生決定性戰果，加以雙方缺乏互信與談判共識等因素影響，漸有形成消耗戰之趨勢。本研究透過回顧俄烏戰爭發生的源起，梳理兩國雖有交疊的歷史因素，然多數分析實則認為儘管冷戰已於1991年結束，但北約持續的東擴，係導致衝突的真正原因，另烏克蘭申請加入北約不僅成為催化因素，更成為戰場。尤其，當美國公開宣示要利用戰爭削弱俄羅斯之意圖，亦影響戰爭遲遲未能結束。期間，興起「今日烏克蘭、明日臺灣」之爭論，促使我國必須省思如何避免戰爭，避免讓中共有武力犯臺藉口、避免成為大國角力下的犧牲品，以及如何透過增加嚇阻實力應對威脅。除此之外，烏軍於實體與網路戰場上的成功經驗，亦可為國軍應對共軍威脅之參照。

關鍵字

俄烏戰爭；冷戰；北約；明斯克協議；代理人戰爭

並列摘要

In 2022, the factor for Russian-Ukrainian war are not only complicated, but also due to the various forms of intervention by major powers other than direct participation, no decisive result in the battlefield, and lack of mutual trust and negotiated consensus have gradually formed a trend of attrition warfare. Although the war has historical factor, majority of analysts still thought that the eastward expansion of NATO is real cause of the conflict even the Cold War had end in 1991. At the same time, Ukraine's application to join NATO is not only a catalyst factor but also turn Ukraine into a battlefield. In particular, the United States had publicly declared its intention to explore the war to weaken Russia also influences the war cannot be end. Meanwhile, the debate of ＂today's Ukraine, tomorrow's Taiwan＂ has prompted Taiwan to consider how to avoid the war, avoid giving China any excuse to invade Taiwan, avoid becoming a victim of the rivalry of major powers, and how to respond these threats by increasing its deterrence strength. In addition, the successful experiences of Ukrainian army in physical and internet fields can also serve as a reference for Taiwan's army to counter PLA.

並列關鍵字

Russian-Ukrainian War ； Cold War ； North Atlantic Treaty Organization ； Minsk Agreement ； Proxy War

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