俄烏戰爭對共軍現代化進程和臺灣安全的影響

俄烏戰爭自爆發以來已進入持久戰、拉鋸戰階段，局勢未見緩和，且對國際體系、世界秩序以及全球地緣政治形勢產生重大衝擊。國際間主要大國除了關切俄國以「特別軍事行動」入侵烏克蘭造成的危害效應，也持續提供烏國經濟、軍事多方面的援助。另在這場戰爭中始終未明確表態的中共，其實正在汲取戰爭經驗，並且轉化為武力攻臺和控制臺海安全局勢之用，構成有形和無形的「混合戰威脅」。本研究採用「戰略」和「安全」途徑，聚焦這場戰爭對中共實現國家和軍事戰略目標的影響，以及臺灣安全應有的政策省思。研究發現，儘管中共推進軍事現代化進程的決心不變，惟對外國勢力介入臺海以及解決臺灣問題的方法將著重於「降級作戰」、「混合戰」、「認知作戰」。為確保臺灣安全，應從安全防衛思維的整合，持續強化不對稱作戰能力構建，深化國防自主政策，增進反制中共威脅的政治作戰韌性能力。

關鍵字

俄烏戰爭；認知作戰；混合戰；積極防禦；不對稱作戰

並列摘要

Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it has entered a protracted war and a tug-of-war stage. The situation has not eased and has a significant impact on the international system, the world order, and the global geopolitical environment. The international powers are not only concerned about the harmful effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine through "special military operation" but also continue to provide economic and military assistance to Ukraine. In addition, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has never clarified its position in this war, is learning from the experience. CCP may use similar tactics to attack Taiwan by military force and control the security situation in Taiwan Strait, which is both a tangible and intangible "hybrid warfare threat." The study uses a "strategic" and "security" approach to focus on the impact of the war on the CCP's achievement of national and military strategic goals, as well as the policy considerations that should make on Taiwan's security. According to the study, although the CCP's determination to promote the modernization of the military remains unchanged, its approach to foreign intervention in the Taiwan Strait and the resolution of the Taiwan issue will focus on "Degradation Warfare," "Hybrid Warfare," and "Cognitive Warfare." To ensure Taiwan's security, we should integrate security and defense thinking, continue strengthening the construction of asymmetric warfare capabilities, deepen the policy of national defense autonomy, and increase the toughness of political warfare to resist the threat of the CCP.

並列關鍵字

Russian-Ukrainian War ； Cognitive Warfare ； Hybrid Warfare ； Active Defense ； Asymmetric Warfare

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