貿易保護政策效果論反傾銷案件調查規範與貿易流量之關係

A Research on Relationship between Trade Protection Effect of Trade Relief and Trade Flow-Cross Section Study

黃智輝(Chi-Huei Huang) ； 陳昱宏(Ju-Hong Chen)

《華人經濟研究》 11卷1期 (2013/03) Pp. 1-27

摘要

世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization, WTO）於1995年成立之後，各會員國在世界貿易組織的規範及要求下，漸漸減少例如關稅、配額等常見使用之傳統貿易手段，但僅有反傾銷制度的施行卻出現有增無減的趨勢，以致突顯出反傾銷措施在國際進出口貿易中扮演成重要之角色，而其對雙邊貿易國之影響更值得深入探討了。本研究希望以台灣反傾銷案件為基礎，探討反傾銷案件的調查結果對控訴國、涉案國及非涉案國之間貿易效果之影響及反傾銷制度對控訴國國內產業之保護效果，進而對我國政府及廠商（產業）提出相關建議與研究後檢討。本文採用「SPSS」統計分析系統來進行各項數據驗證，首先以皮爾森（Pearson）分析進行變數之間相關性分析，檢驗相關變數間是否存在顯著性。其次變異數分析（ANOVA）以多變量變異數分析探討不同反傾銷案件結果對於涉案國出口價值（數量）變動是否有何影響。最後是迴歸分析（Regression Analysis），透過線性迴歸分析法對於應變數與自變數之間關係，確認彼此間關係程度，以驗證反傾銷相關變數分別與涉案國出口價值（數量）及非涉案國出口價值（數量）之間是否存在關係及其關係程度。研究結果發現，我國、日本及美國若反傾銷案件之判決結果為肯定判決，則涉案國出口價值（數量）將會顯著下降且反傾銷稅課徵稅率越高，涉案國出口價值（數量）下降越多。

關鍵字

反傾銷 ； 世界貿易組織 ； 台灣反傾銷制度 ； SSPS模型 ； 貿易保護

並列摘要

Member countries have reduced their use of tariff and quotas as trade barrier since the establishment of World Trade Organization (WTO). However, the use of anti-dumping (AD) measure has become more popular among these countries. It shows that AD plays more important role in international trading activities. Hence, conduct to discuss the AD influence on trade. However, named products of AD cases were defined specifically. In the meantime, there is rare study on the influence of named countries' styles on trading effect of AD system, so this study tries to analyze these AD cases which named countries are developed or developing countries separately to make up the gap of current literatures.This study use SPSS statistical analysis system which use multi-regression and ANOVA to analyze fifty eight anti-dumping cases. We construct the filed data in Taiwan、Japan and United States to find out the trading effects of AD. The empirical result of this study shows the exporting value (quantity) of named countries would fall significantly when the final judgment of AD case is affirmative. In addition, the exporting value (quantity) of named countries would fall more when AD duty is higher.

並列關鍵字

Anti-dumping ； World Trade Organization ； Taiwanese Anti-dumping System ； SSPS model ； Trade Protection