預測台灣股票市場高低點之關鍵因素

A Study on Predicting the Key Factors of the High and Low Points in Taiwan Stock Market

黃華山(Hwa-Shan Huang) ； 謝采凌(Chai-Ling Shieh) ； 林坤盟(Kun-Meng Lin) ； 連世周(Shih-Chou Lien) ； 陳柏文(Bo-Wen Chen) ； 趙丹維(Tan-Wei Chao)

《華人經濟研究》 19卷1期 (2021/03) Pp. 15-40

摘要

本研究使用層級分析法於預測台灣股票市場高低點之關鍵因素，蒐集了過去學者研究之相關文獻，並且與學術界學者及從事證券工作之專業人員進行訪談，歸納出台灣股市高點及低點之總體經濟分析、技術指標、成交量指標及消息面指標，共20個因素，建立台灣股市高點和股市低點兩個關鍵因素之階層圖，利用層級分析法透過具有豐富經驗與資歷之證券專業人員，以層級分析法專家問卷收集相關意見之後，找出專家所認定對於台灣股市高點與低點最重要之關鍵因素，以利投資人對於股票市場投資時重要的決策參考依據。研究結果顯示在股市高點時，顯著的前三項關鍵因素指標分別為，成交量指標、技術指標及消息面指標。股市在低點時，最為顯著的三項因素分別為總體經濟分析、技術指標及成交量指標。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 台灣加權股價指數

並列摘要

This key factors study of Taiwan's stock market uses the Hierarchical Clustering method to forecast the market's high and low points. This study reveals the aggregate number of new highs and new lows are based on the study that collected from conducting a series of interviews with academic scholars and security professionals who have actively engaged in the actual securities marketplace. Our study demonstrates a total of 20 factors that include (1) the economic analysis overview, (2) technical indicators tools, (3) trending indicators, such as trading volume indicators, metrics, and etc. After collecting relevant opinions through hierarchical analysis experts, our studies demonstrate the careful interpretation of trading patterns. These technical analysts help our studies in the trading disciplines to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunitiesby analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity. As a result, our research has shown trading volume indicators, technical indicators, and trending indicators are significantly used while trading at the high point. When the stock market is at its low point, the three most significant tools are economic analysis indicators, technical indicators, and volume indicators.

並列關鍵字

Personality traits ； job shaping ； job engagement ； job performance